Macroeconomics
About us
Researchers in the Macroeconomics Research Cluster are engaged in work across a broad range of themes covering both closed and open economy topics and management of economic policy at shorter and longer-term horizons. More specifically, recent work has addressed a wide variety of issues pertaining to:
- Growth
- Development and international tax competition
- Exchange rate fluctuations and economic policy
- The optimal design of monetary and fiscal policy, trade policy, growth and economic inequality
- Financial market incompleteness
- Investment frictions in the macroeconomy
- The role of news in business cycle analysis
- Labour market distortions and the optimal conduct of economic policy
- The credibility of economic policymakers and the issues involved in policy formation when the “true” model of the economy is unknown
- The economics of independence/devolution
The researchers in the Macroeconomics Research Cluster are regular visitors to central banks and other policymaking institutions around the world. There are also close ties between the cluster and policymakers here in the UK.
Related links
Leadership and members
Lead: Professor Richard Dennis
Alternate: Professor Dimitris Korobilis
Members
Professor Luis Angeles
Dr Georgios Angelis
Dr Konstantinos Angelopoulos
Ms Mridula Duggal
Dr Zafer Kanik
Mr Oleg Kirsanov
Professor Tatiana Kirsanova
Dr Lovleen Kushwah
Professor Campbell Leith
Professor James Malley
Dr Ioana Moldovan
Dr Maria Nareklishvili
Professor Charles Nolan
Dr Anthoulla Phella
Dr Sisir Ramanan
Dr Marcelo Rodrigues dos Santos
Dr Yannis Tsafos
Professor John Tsoukalas
Dr Thomas Walsh
Dr Ning Zhang
Macroeconomics Seminar Series 2024-2025
The Macroeconomics Seminar Series welcomes distinguished researchers from other institutions to present their latest work. Abstracts and speaker biographies for upcoming seminars are available on our Research Seminars webpage.
Our seminars are open to all. For further details or to subscribe to seminar announcements, please contact the ASBS Seminar Series team.
Macroeconomics Seminar Series 2024-2025
Thursday, 26 September 2024. 15:00
Professor Vincent Sterk, University College London
Thursday, 03 October 2024. 15:00
Dr Klodiana Istrefi, Banque de France
Thursday, 10 October 2024. 15:00
Dr Tom Holden, Deutsche Bundesbank Research Department
Thursday, 24 October 2024. 15:00
Dr Axel Gottfries, University of Edinburgh
Thursday, 31 October 2024. 15:00
Dr Dominik Thaler, European Central Bank
Thursday, 07 November 2024. 15:00
Dr Dmitriy Sergeyev, Bocconi University
Thursday, 14 November 2024. 15:00
Dr Alex Kohlhas, University of Oxford
Thursday, 21 November 2024. 15:00
Professor Manolis Galenianos, Royal Holloway, University of London
Thursday, 28 November 2024. 15:00
Professor Benjamin Born, Frankfurt School of Finance & Management
Thursday, 20 February 2025. 15:00
Professor Fabrice Collard, Toulouse School of Economics
Thursday, 27 February 2025. 15:00
Dr Pau Roldan-Blanco, Universitat Autonoma di Barcelona
Thursday, 06 March 2025. 15:00
Dr Zheng Liu, San Francisco Fed
Thursday, 13 March 2025. 15:00
Professor Chryssi Giannitsarou, University of Cambridge
Thursday, 20 March 2025. 15:00
Dr Marta Prato, Bocconi University
Thursday, 27 March 2025. 15:00
Dr Gauthier Vermandel, Ecole Polytechnique
Thursday, 01 May 2025. 15:00
Professor Paulo Santos Monteiro, University of York (UK)
Thursday, 08 May 2025. 15:00
Dr Radoslaw (Radek) Stefanski, University of St Andrews
Thursday, 15 May 2025. 15:00
Professor Ricardo Nunes, University of Surrey
Thursday, 22 May 2025. 15:00
Dr Isaac Baley, Universitat Pompeu Fabra
Thursday, 29 May 2025. 15:00
Professor Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi, Northwestern University
We foster a positive and productive environment for seminars through our Code of conduct.
Impact and Engagement
Learn more about our projects and policy work
Addressing inequalities
Dr Konstantinos Angelopoulos is the Principal Investigator on a new £297,000 grant which is funded by ESRC as part of UK Research and Innovation’s rapid response to COVID-19. This project will model changes in inequalities in income, wealth and health in the years following COVID-19, and use the models developed to assess possible mitigation policies. Understanding such medium-run changes is important because the health and economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, and how these vary across the population, are expected to last for many years. Local project partners include Glasgow City Archives and Glasgow Life.
In a separate project, Dr Konstantinos Angelopoulos has been working with Turkana pastoralist communities to understand inequality by studying the effects of shocks and mitigating activities such as herding, education, family structure, and policy interventions. This work has been supported by the Scottish Funding Council, as part of the Global Challenges Research Fund. It includes colleagues from the MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit, the School of Education, Lancaster and Erasmus Universities, and the NGO Friends of Lake Turkana, Kenya. The researchers recently published a briefing note and a booklet for local schools (see ‘Related links’).
Professor Tatiana Kirsanova and PhD students are currently studying inequality as a driver of optimal monetary and fiscal policy.
Related links
- Dr Konstantinos Angelopoulos
- Economic and Social Research Council
- Scottish Funding Council
- Briefing note: Medium-run wealth inequality following COVID-19 (2021)
- Briefing note: Post-pandemic mortality dynamics: historical city-level evidence (2020)
- Briefing note: Turkana pastoralists at risk: Why education matters (2020)
- Voices of the Turkana People (booklet)
- Professor Tatiana Kirsanova
Behavioural macroeconomics
In partial collaboration with current and former PhD students, Professor Richard Dennis is conducting research in the field of behavioural macroeconomics looking at behaviours such as quasi-hyperbolic discounting, diagnostic expectations, and experienced-based-expectations. These behaviours can alter importantly how decision-makers react to new information, leading to greater economic volatility and increased persistence. This can prolong the effects of shocks such as Brexit and COVID-19.
Related links
Macroeconomic policy after COVID-19
Macroprudential policies were rapidly deployed when the COVID-19 pandemic hit, with capital, liquidity and other regulations weakened or temporarily abandoned across many countries. In particular, capital regulations applying to banks were adjusted to help underpin credit to the real economy. However, little is known about the optimal formulations of such rapid-response policies. It is imperative ahead of any future pandemic or financial turmoil that the relative effectiveness of monetary, fiscal and macroprudential policies are evaluated. These questions are of particular interest to Professor Charles Nolan and his co-authors, including current and former PhD students.
The COVID-19 pandemic has led to mounting government debt levels. Persistently low inflation has reduced the space for monetary policy to operate. Professor Tatiana Kirsanova, Professor Campbell Leith and Dr Ioana Moldovan are exploring optimal policymaking in this environment, considering that policymakers may find it difficult to commit to previously chosen actions. The policymaking process may be further complicated by political frictions generated by the electoral cycle and associated political conflict.
Our policy work
Professor Campbell Leith and Professor Charles Nolan are experts on Scottish fiscal policy and previously served as members of the Scottish Fiscal Commission (SFC). As commissioners, they were responsible for scrutinising the fiscal forecasts of the Scottish Government and for preparing the SFC for the transition to a statutory body when it took over the forecasting from the Scottish Government.
Professor Ronald MacDonald was awarded an OBE in 2015 for services to Economic Policy. He has served as an advisor and consultant to a number of governments, central banks and public bodies. His current research topics include: the macroeconomic implications of the COVID-19 pandemic; the hydrogen economy and its implications for productivity and growth; and the macroeconomic implications of Scottish independence.
Media requests: If you would like to speak to one of our researchers, please contact our Communications Officer, Claire Smith.
Publications
2025
Puthiya Parambath, S., LI, W., Anagnostopoulos, C., Korobilis, D. (2025) CluE: Cluster, Sample & Eliminate - Bayesian Block Elimination for Pure Exploration with Non-binary Rewards and Limited Budget.
Misic, G., Ramanan, S., Tsafos, Y. D. (2025) Assessment Innovation Through Programme Redesign.
Hashimzade, N., Kirsanov, O., Kirsanova, T. (2025) Integrating programming into the modern undergraduate economics curriculum. (doi: 10.2139/ssrn.5116076)
Williams, D., Tsoukalas, J., Wessels, B., Gaska, P. (2025) Scotland’s Productivity Challenge: Exploring the issues – 2025.
2024
Dennis, R., Kirsanova, T. (2024) Policy biases in a model with labor market frictions. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Cheng, W., Ramanan, S., Tsafos, Y. D. (2024) Is it time to embrace AI or abandon it in Higher Education?
Baskaya, S., Shi, S., Tsafos, Y. D., Tsoukalas, J. D. (2024) Geopolitical Risk and Macroprudential Policies. (doi: 10.2139/ssrn.4981165)
Angelis, G. (2024) Price setting and price stickiness: a behavioral foundation of inaction bands. Journal of the European Economic Association, (doi: 10.1093/jeea/jvae049)
Korobilis, D., Schröder, M. (2024) Probabilistic quantile factor analysis. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, (doi: 10.1080/07350015.2024.2396956)
Dennis, R. (2024) Using a hyperbolic cross to solve non-linear macroeconomic models. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 163, (doi: 10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104860)
Cheng, W., Ramanan, S., Tsafos, Y. D. (2024) AIEd Outcomes and Graduate Attributes.
Ewald, C. O., Nolan, C. (2024) On the adaptation of the Lagrange formalism to continuous time stochastic optimal control: a Lagrange-chow redux. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 162, (doi: 10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104855)
Mancy, R., Stewart, G., Schroeder, M., Lazarakis, S., Angelopoulos, K. (2024) The legacy of epidemics: Influenza and smallpox in the early 20th century in Glasgow, UK. Editions Jérôme Millon
Korobilis, D., Schröder, M. (2024) Monitoring multi-country macroeconomic risk: a quantile factor-augmented vector autoregressive (QFAVAR) approach. Journal of Econometrics, (doi: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2024.105730)
Koop, G., Korobilis, D., Ravazzolo, F. (2024) Editorial introduction of the special issue of the Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics in honor of Herman van Dijk. Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, 28, pp. 151-153. (doi: 10.1515/snde-2024-0024)
Phella, A., Gabriel, V. J., Martins, L. F. (2024) Predicting tail risks and the evolution of temperatures. Energy Economics, 131, (doi: 10.1016/j.eneco.2023.107286)
Hashimzade, N., Kirsanov, O., Kirsanova, T., Maih, J. (2024) On Bayesian Filtering for Markov Regime Switching Models.
Phella, A. (2024) Consistent specification test of the quantile autoregression. arXiv, (doi: 10.48550/ARXIV.2010.03898)
Lavery, P., Tsoukalas, J., Wilson, N. (2024) Private equity financing & firm productivity, Working Paper No. 041.
2023
Zhang, N. (2023) Asset home bias in debtor and creditor countries. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 157, (doi: 10.1016/j.jedc.2023.104760)
Görtz, C., Li, W., Tsoukalas, J., Zanetti, F. (2023) Vintage article: The effect of monetary policy shocks in the United Kingdom: an external instruments approach. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 27, pp. 2270-2285. (doi: 10.1017/S1365100522000657)
Chen, X., Leith, C., Ricci, M. (2023) Evaluating fiscal policy reforms using the fiscal frontier. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 155, (doi: 10.1016/j.jedc.2023.104733)
Duncan, A., Nolan, C. (2023) Adam Smith and the bankers: retrospect and prospect. National Institute Economic Review, 265, pp. 70-104. (doi: 10.1017/nie.2023.24)
Dennis, R., Ilbas, P. (2023) Monetary and macroprudential policy interactions in a model of the Euro area. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 154, (doi: 10.1016/j.jedc.2023.104706)
Koop, G., Korobilis, D. (2023) Bayesian dynamic variable selection in high dimensions. International Economic Review, 64, pp. 1047-1074. (doi: 10.1111/iere.12623)
Schroeder, M., Lazarakis, S., Mancy, R., Angelopoulos, K. (2023) An extended period of elevated influenza mortality risk follows the main waves of influenza pandemics. Social Science and Medicine, 328, (doi: 10.1016/j.socscimed.2023.115975)
Görtz, C., Sakellaris, P., Tsoukalas, J. D. (2023) Firms’ financing dynamics around lumpy capacity adjustments. European Economic Review, 156, (doi: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2023.104481)
Korobilis, D., Montoya-Blandón, S. (2023) Discussion of “multivariate dynamic modeling for Bayesian forecasting of business revenue” Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, 39, pp. 315-317. (doi: 10.1002/asmb.2753)
Angelopoulos, K., Kammas, P. (2023) On the persistence of public sector efficiency and the role of historical institutional quality. Edward Elgar Publishing
Hashimzade, N., Kirsanov, O., Kirsanova, T. (2023) Distributional effects of endogenous discounting. Mathematical Social Sciences, 122, pp. 1-6. (doi: 10.1016/j.mathsocsci.2023.01.003)
Angelopoulos, K., Stewart, G., Mancy, R. (2023) Local infectious disease experience influences vaccine refusal rates: a natural experiment. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 290, (doi: 10.1098/rspb.2022.1986)
Malley, J., Philippopoulos, A. (2023) The macroeconomic effects of funding U.S. infrastructure. European Economic Review, 152, (doi: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2022.104334)
2022
Görtz, C., Tsoukalas, J. D., Zanetti, F. (2022) News shocks under financial frictions. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 14, pp. 210-243. (doi: 10.1257/mac.20170066)
Korobilis, D. (2022) A new algorithm for structural restrictions in Bayesian vector autoregressions. European Economic Review, 148, (doi: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2022.104241)
Baumeister, C., Korobilis, D., Lee, T. (2022) Energy markets and global economic conditions. Review of Economics and Statistics, 104, pp. 828-844. (doi: 10.1162/rest_a_00977)
Korobilis, D., Shimizu, K. (2022) Bayesian approaches to shrinkage and sparse estimation. Foundations and Trends in Econometrics, 11, pp. 230-354. (doi: 10.1561/0800000041)
Chen, X., Leeper, E. M., Leith, C. (2022) Strategic interactions in U.S. monetary and fiscal policies. Quantitative Economics, 13, pp. 593-628. (doi: 10.3982/QE1678)
Dennis, R. (2022) Computing time-consistent equilibria: a perturbation approach. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 137, (doi: 10.1016/j.jedc.2022.104349)
Angeles, L. (2022) Money Matters. How money and banks evolved, and why we have financial crises. Palgrave Macmillan
Angelopoulos, K., Lazarakis, S., Malley, J. (2022) Cyclical labour income risk in Great Britain. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 37, pp. 116-130. (doi: 10.1002/jae.2860)
Gambetti, L., Görtz, C., Korobilis, D., Tsoukalas, J. D., Zanetti, F. (2022) The effect of news shocks and monetary policy. Emerald
Angelopoulos, K., Mancy, R., Agol, D., Lazarakis, S., Papyrakis, E. (2022) Turkana Pastoralists at Risk: Impact Evaluation Report.
2021
Tsoukalas, J. (2021) Scotland’s Productivity Challenge: Exploring the issues. (doi: 10.36399/gla.pubs.260002)
Zhang, N. (2021) Asset home bias in debtor and creditor countries.
Schroeder, M., Lazarakis, S., Mancy, R., Angelopoulos, K. (2021) How Do Pandemics End? Two Decades of Recurrent Outbreak Risk Following the Main Waves.
Angelopoulos, K., Lazarakis, S., Mancy, R., Schroeder, M. (2021) Pandemic-Induced Wealth and Health Inequality and Risk Exposure.
Flamini, F., Leith, C. (2021) Political conflict and bargaining in a new Keynesian model of fiscal stabilization. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 25, pp. 2128-2179. (doi: 10.1017/S1365100519000993)
Korobilis, D., Landau, B., Musso, A., Phella, A. (2021) The Time-Varying Evolution of Inflation Risks. SSRN Electronic Journal, (doi: 10.2866/861413)
Angelopoulos, A., Angelopoulos, K., Lazarakis, S., Philippopoulos, A. (2021) The distributional consequences of rent seeking. Economic Inquiry, 59, pp. 1616-1640. (doi: 10.1111/ecin.13009)
Damjanovic, T., Damjanovic, V., Nolan, C. (2021) Unconditionally optimal Ramsey policy. Journal of Macroeconomics, 69, (doi: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2021.103346)
Zhang, N. (2021) Two-way capital flows: A risk-sharing approach.
Kirsanova, T., Nolan, C., Shafiei Deh Abad, M. (2021) Deep recessions. Economic Modelling, 96, pp. 310-323. (doi: 10.1016/j.econmod.2020.03.026)
Angelopoulos, K., Lazarakis, S., Mancy, R., Schroeder, M. (2021) Briefing Note: Medium-run wealth inequality following COVID-19.
Leeper, E. M., Leith, C., Liu, D. (2021) Optimal time-consistent monetary, fiscal and debt maturity policy. Journal of Monetary Economics, 117, pp. 600-617. (doi: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2020.03.015)
Korobilis, D. (2021) High-dimensional macroeconomic forecasting using message passing algorithms. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 39, pp. 493-504. (doi: 10.1080/07350015.2019.1677472)
2020
Phella, A. (2020) Forecasting with factor-augmented quantile autoregressions: a model averaging approach. arXiv, (doi: 10.48550/arXiv.2010.12263)
Damjanovic, T., Damjanovic, V., Nolan, C. (2020) Default, bailouts and the vertical structure of financial intermediaries. Review of Economic Dynamics, 38, pp. 154-180. (doi: 10.1016/j.red.2020.04.002)
Angelopoulos, K., Lazarakis, S., Malley, J. (2020) The distributional implications of asymmetric income dynamics. European Economic Review, 128, (doi: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2020.103502)
Korobilis, D., Pettenuzzo, D. (2020) Machine Learning Econometrics: Bayesian algorithms and methods. Oxford University Press
Beckkmann, J., Koop, G., Korobilis, D., Schuessler, R. A. (2020) Exchange rate predictability and dynamic Bayesian learning. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 35, pp. 410-421. (doi: 10.1002/jae.2761)
Dennis, R., Kirsanov, O. (2020) Monetary Policy when Preferences are Quasi-Hyperbolic. University of Glasgow Working Paper,
Duncan, A., Nolan, C. (2020) Reform of the UK Financial Policy Committee. Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 67, pp. 1-30. (doi: 10.1111/sjpe.12228)
Angelopoulos, K., Lazarakis, S., Mancy, R., Schroeder, M. (2020) Briefing Note: Post-pandemic mortality dynamics: historical city-level evidence.
Agol, D., Angelopoulos, K., Lazarakis, S., Mancy, R., Papyrakis, E. (2020) Briefing Note: Turkana pastoralists at risk: Why education matters.
Agol, D., Angelopoulos, K., Lazarakis, S., Mancy, R., Papyrakis, E. (2020) Voices of the Turkana People.
2019
Zhang, N. (2019) Country portfolios under global imbalances. European Economic Review, 119, pp. 302-317. (doi: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2019.07.009)
Koop, G., Korobilis, D. (2019) Forecasting with high-dimensional panel VARs. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 81, pp. 937-959. (doi: 10.1111/obes.12303)
Kontonikas, A., Nolan, C., Zekaite, Z., Lamla, M. (2019) Treasuries variance decomposition and the impact of monetary policy. International Journal of Finance and Economics, 24, pp. 1506-1519. (doi: 10.1002/ijfe.1744)
Korobilis, D., Pettenuzzo, D. (2019) Adaptive hierarchical priors for high-dimensional vector autoregressions. Journal of Econometrics, 212, pp. 241-271. (doi: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2019.04.029)
Byrne, J. P., Cao, S., Korobilis, D. (2019) Decomposing global yield curve co-movement. Journal of Banking and Finance, 106, pp. 500-513. (doi: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2019.07.018)
Angelopoulos, K., Asimakopoulos, S., Malley, J. (2019) The optimal distribution of the tax burden over the business cycle. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 23, pp. 2298-2337. (doi: 10.1017/S1365100517000700)
Angeles, L. (2019) On the nature of banks. Kyklos, 72, pp. 381-399. (doi: 10.1111/kykl.12204)
Duncan, A., Nolan, C. (2019) Disputes, debt and equity. Theoretical Economics, 14, pp. 887-925. (doi: 10.3982/TE2574)
Koop, G., Korobilis, D., Pettenuzzo, D. (2019) Bayesian compressed vector autoregressions. Journal of Econometrics, 210, pp. 135-154. (doi: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2018.11.009)
2018
Waki, Y., Dennis, R., Fujiwara, I. (2018) The optimal degree of monetary discretion in a new Keynesian model with private information. Theoretical Economics, 13, pp. 1319-1367. (doi: 10.3982/TE2369)
Tsoukalas, J., Görtz, C. (2018) Sectoral TFP news shocks. Economics Letters, 168, pp. 31-36. (doi: 10.1016/j.econlet.2018.03.001)
Leith, C., Moldovan, I., Wren-Lewis, S. (2018) Debt stabilization in a Non-Ricardian economy. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 23, pp. 2509-2543. (doi: 10.1017/S1365100517000797)
Himmels, C., Kirsanova, T. (2018) Discretionary policy in a small open economy: exchange rate regimes and multiple equilibria. Journal of Macroeconomics, 56, pp. 53-64. (doi: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2018.01.001)
Kirsanova, T., Machado, C., Ribeiro, A. P. (2018) Should the ECB coordinate EMU fiscal policies? International Journal of Central Banking, 14, pp. 237-280.
Bi, H., Leeper, E. M., Leith, C. (2018) Sovereign default and monetary policy tradeoffs. International Journal of Central Banking, 14, pp. 289-324.
Duncan, A., Nolan, C. (2018) Financial frictions in macroeconomic models. Oxford University Press
Dennis, R., Kirsanova, T. (2018) Equilibrium coordination with discretionary policy making. Economic Journal, 128, pp. 710-727. (doi: 10.1111/ecoj.12407)
Byrne, J. P., Korobilis, D., Ribeiro, P. J. (2018) On the sources of uncertainty in exchange rate predictability. International Economic Review, 59, pp. 329-357. (doi: 10.1111/iere.12271)
2017
Byrne, J. P., Cao, S., Korobilis, D. (2017) Forecasting the term structure of government bond yields in unstable environments. Journal of Empirical Finance, 44, pp. 209-225. (doi: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2017.09.004)
Chen, X., Kirsanova, T., Leith, C. (2017) How optimal is US monetary policy? Journal of Monetary Economics, 92, pp. 96-111. (doi: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2017.09.009)
Chen, X., Kirsanova, T., Leith, C. (2017) An empirical assessment of optimal monetary policy in the Euro area. European Economic Review, 100, pp. 95-115. (doi: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2017.07.012)
Zhang, N. (2017) Country portfolios with habit persistence.
Görtz, C., Tsoukalas, J. (2017) News and financial intermediation in aggregate fluctuations. Review of Economics and Statistics, 99, pp. 514-530. (doi: 10.1162/REST_a_00612)
Bai, Y., Kirsanova, T., Leith, C. (2017) Nominal targeting in an economy with government debt. European Economic Review, 94, pp. 103-125. (doi: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2017.02.011)
Tsoukalas, J., Tsoukas, S., Guariglia, A. (2017) To what extent are savings-cash flow sensitivities informative to test for capital market imperfections? Review of Finance, 21, pp. 1251-1285. (doi: 10.1093/rof/rfw043)
Angeles, L. (2017) The great divergence and the economics of printing. Economic History Review, 70, pp. 30-51. (doi: 10.1111/ehr.12337)
Angelopoulos, K., Economides, G., Philippopoulos, A. (2017) Environmental public good provision under robust decision making. Oxford Economic Papers, 69, pp. 118-142. (doi: 10.1093/oep/gpw041)
Korobilis, D. (2017) Quantile regression forecasts of inflation under model uncertainty. International Journal of Forecasting, 33, pp. 11-20. (doi: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2016.07.005)
Angelopoulos, K., Malley, J., Philippopoulos, A. (2017) Human capital accumulation and transition to skilled employment. Journal of Human Capital, 11, pp. 72-105. (doi: 10.1086/690445)
Angeles, L., Elizalde, A. (2017) Pre-colonial institutions and socioeconomic development: The case of Latin America. Journal of Development Economics, 124, pp. 22-40. (doi: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2016.08.006)
2016
Leith, C., Liu, D. (2016) The inflation bias under Calvo and Rotemberg pricing. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 73, pp. 283-297. (doi: 10.1016/j.jedc.2016.09.002)
Leeper, E. M., Leith, C. (2016) Understanding inflation as a joint monetary-fiscal phenomenon. Elsevier
Korobilis, D. (2016) Prior selection for panel vector autoregressions. Computational Statistics and Data Analysis, 101, pp. 110-120. (doi: 10.1016/j.csda.2016.02.011)
Angeles, L., Milne, R. G. (2016) Competitive provision of public services: cost savings over successive rounds of tendering. Applied Economics Letters, 23, pp. 627-632. (doi: 10.1080/13504851.2015.1093079)
Angelopoulos, K., Asimakopoulos, S., Malley, J. (2016) Optimal progressive taxation in a model with endogenous skill supply. MIT Press
Byrne, J., Korobilis, D., Ribeiro, P. J. (2016) Exchange rate predictability in a changing world. Journal of International Money and Finance, 62, pp. 1-24. (doi: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2015.12.001)
Koop, G., Korobilis, D. (2016) Model uncertainty in panel vector autoregressive models. European Economic Review, 81, pp. 115-131. (doi: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2015.09.006)
Leeper, E. M., Leith, C. (2016) Understanding Inflation as a Joint Monetary-Fiscal Phenomenon. (doi: 10.3386/w21867)
Dennis, R., Kirsanova, T. (2016) Computing Markov-perfect optimal policies in business-cycle models. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 20, pp. 1850-1872. (doi: 10.1017/S1365100515000176)