Dr Jethro Browell

  • Senior Lecturer (Statistics)

Biography

Jethro received the M.Phys. degree in Mathematics and Theoretical Physics from the University of St Andrews in 2011, and the Ph.D. degree in wind energy systems from the University of Strathclyde in 2015. He was a member of research and academic staff at Strathclyde from 2015 to 2021, during which time he held established the Energy Forecasting Research group and held an EPSRC Innovation Fellowship titled "System-wide probabilistic energy forecasting".

In 2021 Jethro joined the School of Mathematics and Statistics at the University of Glasgow as a Senior Lecturer in Statistics. He is an active member of the IEEE Power & Energy Society and is currently vice-chair of their Working Group on Energy Forecasting and Analytics. He is also Secretary of the UK Chapter of the International Institute of Forecasters, a Fellow of the Royal Statistical Society, and active in the International Energy Agency Wind Task 36 (forecasting).

Jethro has worked extensively with the energy industry in the UK and Europe developing methods for modelling and forecasting wind power production and electricity demand amongst other things. Several electricity generators and network operators are using forecasts and decision-support produced by his tools today.

Research interests

My core research interest is the production and use of probabilistic forecasts, those which quantify uncertainty. This includes development of novel forecasting methodologies, forecast evaluation, and the use of forecasts in decision-making, particularly in the energy sector. More generally I'm interested in regression/supervised learning, time series analysis, and decision-making under risk and uncertainty. I often work at the intersection of statistics, engineering, and meteorology.

My expertise may be summarised as:

  • Probabilistic forecasting: methodology and evaluation
  • Decision-making under uncertainty
  • Time series: classical and machine learning methods
  • Energy forecasting: wind, solar, demand, prices and more
  • Use of forecasts in energy trading and power system operation

Research units

Grants

Recent grants:

  • Strategic Innovation Fund: "Predict-4-Resilience" (Discovery and Alpha Phase, 2021-22)
  • EPSRC Innovation Fellowship: "System-wide probabilistic energy forecasting" [EP/R023484/1, 2018-22]
  • EPSRC: "Analytical Middleware for Informed Distribution Networks (AMIDiNe)" [EP/S030131/1, 2019-22]
  • EPSRC Supergen Energy Networks Hub: "Energy Forecasting for Market-led Multi-vector Networks" [2020-21]

Supervision

I welcome enquiries from prospective PhD students and industrial partners interested in any of the following or related topics. Please contact me directly in the first instance to discuss research interests, funding & scholarships, and life at Glasgow.

  • Probabilistic forecasting: high-dimensional and multivariate prediction, statistical methods for forecast production, evaluation and decision-support
  • Energy forecasting (wind power, solar power, energy demand, energy prices): method and applications for system operation and market participation
  • Statistical post-processing of numerical weather prediction: ensemble post-processing, sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasting, applications and decision-support

Current PhD Students:

  • Leo May: Forecasting and Analytics for Offering Frequency Response From Wind

Past PhD Students:

  • Rosemary Tawn: Predictive Analytics for Short-term Wind and Solar Power Forecasting (with Natural Power)
  • Ciaran Gilbert: Topics in High-Dimensional Energy Forecasting

Teaching

My current teaching duties include:

  • Honours, MSci and MSc project supervision
  • Time Series (H/M, Semester 2)
  • Statistics 2X
  • MSci Work Placement Coordinator

Professional activities & recognition

Research fellowships

  • 2018 - 2021: EPSRC Innovation Fellowship

Grant committees & research advisory boards

  • 2021: EPSRC, Associate Peer Review College

Editorial boards

  • 2020: Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews
  • 2021: Sustainable Energy, Grids and Networks

Professional & learned societies

  • 2015: Senior Member, IEEE (The Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers)
  • 2016: Secretary, UK Chapter, International Institute of Forecasters
  • 2017: Fellow, Royal Statistical Society
  • 2021: Vice-chair, IEEE PES Working Group on Energy Forecasting and Analytics
  • 2017: Fellow, Higher Education Academy / Advance HE

Additional information

Links to pre-prints/open-access versions of papers, code and more are available at www.jethrobrowell.com

I'm an active member of the following organisations:

  • IEEE Power & Energy Society (Chair, Working Group on Energy Forecasting and Analytics)
  • International Institute of Forecasters (Vice-chair, UK Chapter)
  • IEA Wind (Task 51 Forecasting, workpackage co-lead)
  • EPSRC Peer Review College