Towards anticipating catastrophe : Glacial Lake Outburst Floods

Sarbani Palit (Indian Statistical Institute)

Monday 26th October 12:00-13:00
Maths 311B

Abstract

Over the past decade, high mountainous regions have been facing increasing hazards stemming from rising temperatures and their effect on the cryosphere. Melting and continued retreat of glaciers have led to the growth of numerous glacial lakes, especially in the Himalayan region. These lakes pose a threat to their surroundings, the extent of which depends on their size and rather temporary nature of their existence. The lakes usually have weak moraine walls often interspersed with ice which can collapse suddenly, commonly due to accelerated melting causing a rise in the water level or glacier calving leading to increased pressure, on the walls. The sudden release of meltwater from a glacial lake, termed as a Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF), wreaks havoc along the path it takes causing large-scale destruction of lives and infrastructure. Recent GLOF disasters include those in Thame Village, Nepal in August 2024, South Llonak Lake, Sikkim in October, 2023, Shishper, Pakistan in May, 2022. Early detection of such an imminent disaster would save lives and livelihoods. This talk will focus on the identification and analysis of various factors which have a role to play in the creation of such GLOFs. We treat the degradation in snow cover of a region as the chief contributor towards the event and then aim to identify its key drivers. Climatic, meteorological and topographic factors are considered, using remote sensing images and data from publicly available repositories.

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