Semiparametric plug in estimation and inference for the BTL model

Vladimir Spokoiny (WIAS Berlin)

Wednesday 17th September 14:00-15:00
Maths 311B

Abstract

The recent paper Gao et al. (2023) on estimation and inference for the top-ranking problem in the Bradley-Terry-Luce (BTL) model presented a surprising result: componentwise estimation and inference can be done under much weaker conditions on the number of comparisons than it is required for the full-dimensional estimation. The present paper revisits this finding from completely different viewpoint. Namely, we show how a theoretical study of estimation in sup-norm can be reduced to the analysis of plug-in semiparametric estimation. For the latter, we adopt and extend the general approach from Spokoiny (2025b) for high-dimensional estimation. The main tool of the analysis is a theory of perturbed marginal optimization when an objective function depends on a low-dimensional target parameter along with a high-dimensional nuisance parameter. A particular focus of the study is the critical dimension condition. Full-dimensional estimation requires in general the condition N >> p between the effective parameter dimension p and the effective sample size N corresponding to the smallest eigenvalue of the Fisher information matrix F. Inference on the estimated parameter is even more demanding: the condition N >> p^2 cannot be generally avoided; see Spokoiny (2025b). However, for the sup-norm estimation, the critical dimension condition can be reduced to N >= C log(p). Compared to Gao et al. (2023), the proposed approach works for the classical MLE and does not require any resampling procedure, applies to more general structure of the comparison graph, and yields more accurate expansions for each component of the parameter vector.

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