Would most Covid-19 victims have died soon, without the virus?
Dirk Husmeier (University of Glasgow)
Friday 15th May, 2020 14:30-15:00 Zoom link in description
Meeting ID: 932 5284 6336Password: 987211"Sacrifice the weak" urged a sign at a protest against Tennessee's lockdown on April20th, though whether the person holding it was trolling the other protesters is unknown. Some claim social distancing is pointless, since Covid-19's elderly and multimorbid victims would soon have have died of other causes. In Britain many pundits have said that two-thirds of the country's dead were already within a year of passing away. Can we test this contentious claim?In my talk, I will present a statistical approach to estimate how ill Covid-19's victims were before catching it, how long they might have lived otherwise, and how that can be quantified objectively with "years of life lost". The method is based on a combination of data integration, data augmentation, Markov chain Monte Carlo and survival analysis.This work is part of a collaborative project with Peter Hanlon, Fergus Chadwick, Anoop Shah, Rachael Wood, Jon Minton, Gerry McCartney, Colin Fischbacher, Frances S. Mair, Jason Matthiopoulos, and David A. McAllister.