The cost of living has risen significantly in recent years, leading many households into financial hardship. Rising prices don’t just stretch budgets, they can also push crime rates higher.

Professor Theo Koutmeridis’s research is the first to show a clear link between price increases and theft. Using detailed data from New Scotland Yard, his team matched stolen goods with their market prices. The results were striking: a 10% price increase led to a 3–4% increase in theft of that item.

Some goods were even more affected. Commodities like metals and fuel saw the biggest jumps. For example, with petrol prices recently up by 34%, stolen fuel could rise by more than 20%, hitting both vehicle owners and retailers hard.

This study reveals that changes in prices can explain criminal behaviour more accurately than traditional factors like unemployment or wages. It suggests policymakers should pay closer attention to price trends as an early warning sign for potential crime surges.

The research calls for urgent action to tackle the cost-of-living crisis, from regulating prices and curbing excessive profits, to taxing wealth at the top. Without intervention, high inflation combined with economic stagnation, “stagflation” could drive further increases in crime and social unrest.

For further information, please contact business-school-research@glasgow.ac.uk 

First published: 12 September 2022

<< Projects and activities - Addressing Inequalities


Related links