Econometrics Seminar Series. "Beyond Oil: The Origins of Commodity Price Fluctuations"
Published: 4 February 2026
27 February 2026. Dr Evgenia Passari, University Paris Dauphine-PSL
Dr Evgenia Passari, University Paris Dauphine-PSL
"Beyond Oil: The Origins of Commodity Price Fluctuations"
Friday, 27 February. 16:00
Room 383, Adam Smith Business School
Abstract
We construct measures of supply and demand disturbances in commodity markets using textual analysis in news articles spanning the 2001 to 2023 period. Our empirical analysis utilizing text-derived indicators establishes an important role for supply-side disturbances coming from the non-petroleum markets: negative supply shocks lead to declines in measures of economic activity and increases in inflation. The implied business cycle transmission of these supply-side disturbances is often larger and more persistent than those arising in oil markets in our sample.
Bio
Evgenia Passari is an Associate Professor in Finance at DRM, Université Paris Dauphine-PSL and a Research Affiliate in the Centre for Economic Policy Research. She holds a Ph.D. in Finance from Bayes Business School (formerly known as Cass Business School), London. Before the completion of her doctorate in 2013 she worked in the research departments of Société Générale and Goldman Sachs, while from 2012 to 2014 she was a Research Fellow in the Economics Department of London Business School. Evgenia’s research work has focused on international finance with a focus on commodities, empirical asset pricing and political economy. In addition to teaching and doing research, Evgenia has been involved in policy advice for the Bank of Greece. Her research has been recognised with the 2017 Fondation Banque de France/ILB Young Researcher in Economics Prize.
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First published: 4 February 2026