UofG Centre for Public Policy

15 September 2025: At this year’s Scottish Parliament Festival of Politics, Professor Nicola McEwen spoke as part of the Centre for Public Policy’s panel exploring the major challenges facing Scotland beyond the 2026 election. She shared her insights on how institutions, relationships, and political culture will shape the next parliamentary term. 

Blog by Professor Nicola McEwen, Director of the Centre for Public Policy, on the challenges for our next parliament.  

The big message for those standing in the 2026 election is: whoever wins, there are many challenges ahead. Confronting them will require bold action in pursuit of a better Scotland.  

Fiscal constraints, demographic pressures, and the need for preventative investment will demand difficult decisions. In some cases, that may mean stopping doing certain things to prioritise others. Making hard choices requires political courage. It may also require political strength. 

We are far too far away from election day to make any predictions on who will lead the next government. But opinion polls point to the prospect of another parliament of minorities, with even greater ideological fragmentation.  

Minority government is not unusual in Scotland. Our electoral system was designed to ensure that the number of MSPs each party wins is more in line with its share of the votes. We are some distance from any party being close to securing majority support. In the early years of the Scottish Parliament, elections produced coalition governments. In the current climate, it’s hard to see a stable coalition emerging. The ideological alignment that might in other countries generate alliances between parties is often offset in Scotland by constitutional divisions and deep mistrust. 

But no government can face these policy challenges alone. The administration that emerges from the election will need to find ways to work across party lines to pass legislation, approve its budgets, and build sufficient consensus to get things done. A febrile political atmosphere in a fragmented parliament may make this harder than it has been for minority governments to date.  

This poses a risk, not just to effective governance, but to trust in the devolved institutions. The Scottish Social Attitudes Survey has identified a steady decline in levels of trust in the Scottish Government over the past two parliamentary sessions: 47% of Scots now trust the government to work in Scotland’s best interests “just about always” or “most of the time”, down from 72% in 2015. Though still notably higher than trust in the UK Government (the equivalent figure being 21%), it is the lowest level of trust in devolved government since the parliament was established 25 years ago. 

The new administration will also have to work effectively with both the UK Government and local government. Many of the challenges we face – such as climate change, poverty, low productivity and maintaining well-run public services – are affected by both devolved and reserved powers. This makes them the responsibility of more than one sphere of government, making intergovernmental cooperation essential.  

Scottish-UK intergovernmental relations have improved since the election of the Labour Government. But legacy barriers – such as the United Kingdom Internal Market Act and the lack of protection for the Sewel Convention – remain unresolved. There will be a UK general election during the next parliamentary term which could see the landscape shift again, posing new challenges for intergovernmental collaboration.

We can expect a lively debate in the months to come about whether there should be greater devolution within Scotland – empowering local government to take more decisions for their local areas. I welcome that debate, but it needs careful reflection on we can ensure all local authorities have sufficient capabilities and resources to take on new responsibilities.  

Governing after the next election will not be a walk in the park, whatever the outcome. But we should expect our parliamentarians to rise to the challenge. This summer, we lost the Rt Hon Sir George Reid, a giant of Scottish politics and a champion of the Scottish Parliament. As Presiding Officer, George initiated the Festival of Politics. His sad passing brought to mind his words at the opening of the parliament’s new Holyrood home:

This Parliament belongs to its people. It has been built to invite them in… It is a place where, together, we can be ambitious for Scotland… Where we are not prisoners of our past but the cause of what happens next…

Parliamentarians do listen, and there’s nothing like an election year to amplify the people’s voice. Those participating in our event at the Festival of Politics sent a clear message to the parliamentary class of 2026: be ambitious, be bold, and be willing to work collaboratively. Because the decisions made in the next few years will shape Scotland’s future for decades to come. 

Author

Nicola McEwen is Professor of Public Policy and Governance and Director of the University of Glasgow's Centre for Public Policy. She has published widely in the field of territorial politics, nationalism, multi-level government and policy-making, and multi-level parties and elections and is actively involved in informing debate within the wider policy and political community.

Further reading

Read the Centre for Public Policy report Westminster Rules? United Kingdom Internal Market Act and Devolution by Professor Nicola McEwen and colleagues, that examines the context, content and operational impact of the UK Internal Market Act. 

^{Preview image by Liz Leyden from Getty Images Signature via Canva Pro}

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Watch the panel recording

The full panel recording is available on the Scottish Parliament's YouTube channel:

Keep an eye on the Centre for Public Policy website in the coming weeks where we'll be sharing further insights on this topic from our panel speakers.

First published: 15 September 2025