Developing partial system models to assess system-level resilience to perturbations: Determining the resilience of pollinator networks to climate change.
Supervisors:
Dan Haydon, School of Biodiversity, One Health & Veterinary Medicine
Adam Kleczkowski, University of Strathclyde
Industry Partner - NatureScot
Summary:
A fundamental challenge of systems biology is that we can only observe and measure a subset of the variables that comprise a system, and the interactions that exist between them. The rest of the system is unobserved. Our ability to study partially observed systems is undergoing transformation with the development of state-space models which allow the estimation of latent variables, and other developments around ‘partial systems theory’.
In this study we propose to investigate the effect of climate change on pollinator networks in Scotland’s temperate rainforest. Pollination is a key ecosystem service most often associated with bees, but moths are known to play a vital but less commonly studied role. We have long-term data on a diverse sympatric moth community, and current pollinator relationships will be reconstructed using doman data and affordable, scalable DNA metabarcoding of pollen grains to determine the range of plant species whose pollen they transport.
Training will be provided in systems and partial systems dynamics theory, network theory, time-series analysis, genomics and bioinformatics, entomology and taxonomy and through the CASE partner (NatureScot) in policy matters relating to national pollinator strategies, guidelines, and monitoring and surveillance methodologies.