Jialin Gong

Email: j.gong.1@research.gla.ac.uk

Office: Room 101, 11 Southpark Terrace, University of Glasgow G12 8LG

Research title: The impact of fiscal stimulus package on the Chinese economy

Research Summary

Jialin's research focuses on the effects of China's fiscal stimulus package, the 4 trillion package, aiming to conduct a comprehensive channel analysis of its economic consequences. 

Working in progress: 

Political connection effect under economic stimulus: Evidence from China's listed firms

Working paper: 

Quantity and quality? The real effect of China's stimulus-driven credit expansion at the industry level

This paper studies the effects of China's economic stimulus of 2009-10 on industry investment performance and allocation trends within provinces. I identify industries with strong, weak, and without government support by collecting keywords from official government documents, and estimate the differential impact by applying a difference-in-difference strategy. Quantitatively, industries with government back-up are encouraged to invest more after 2009. However, qualitatively, it results in a less efficient investment of industries with strong government intervention, which causes a poor post-stimulus allocation trend within provinces, particularly in state-dominant sectors and regions with high corruption levels or less-developed financial systems. We further confirm that this is related to the sharp increase in bank loans and severe over-investment after 2009. Overall, my findings support the view that the stimulus-driven credit expansion in China results in more resources being allocated to sectors with weaker growth prospects.

The impact of the economic stimulus package on China's economic growth 

This paper studies the growth effects of China's economic stimulus plan of 2009-10. I use the recently developed regression methods, the error correction model (ECM) and the pooled mean group (PMG) approach, which treats heterogeneous short-run dynamics explicitly within a long-run model. Results suggest that there is a significant long-term negative link between fiscal/credit expansion and growth in China, while the short-term effects are positive. I argue that the stimulus plan is one of the factors behind the slowdown in Chinese growth due to its disproportionate allocation of government expenditure and bank credit. 

Research interests: 

Fiscal policy (short- and long-run effects of fiscal shocks on output composition, growth and productivity, links between fiscal cycle and financial cycle)

Access to financial services (the impact and dynamics of access to credit)

The Chinese economy 

Corporate finance and investment 

Growth and development

Conference

Chinese Economic Association (Europe and UK), Annual Conference (Durham, UK), 12-13th Nov 2022

North East Universities Development Consortium Conference (Paper accepted), 5-6th Nov 2022

PhD-Economics Virtual Seminar, 6th Oct 2022

Cornell University, 100 Years of Economic Development Conference (Virtual), 15-17th Sep 2022

Antai College of Economics-Management, Shanghai Jiaotong University, Ph.D. Forum (Virtual), 14th Jul 2022

Aix-Marseilles School of Economic, Summer School Presentation (Aix-en-Provence, France), 5-7th Jul 2022

Chinese Economists Society, Annual Conference (Virtual), 24-26th Jun 2022

Scottish Economic Society, Annual Conference (Glasgow, UK), 25-27th Apr 2022

Money, Macro and Finance Society, Ph.D. Annual Conference (Edinburgh, UK), 21-23rd Apr 2022

College of Social Science, University of Glasgow, PGR Symposium (Glasgow, UK), 3rd Mar 2022

School of Finance, Nankai University, Invited Virtual Presentation, 29th Jan 2022

Chinese Economic Association (Europe and UK), Annual Conference (Virtual), 4-5th Dec 2021

Teaching

Principles of Macroeconomics (Undergraduate, first-year)

Mathematical Methods for Macroeconomics (Undergraduate, first-year)

Introductory Statistic for Economics (Undergraduate, second-year)

Data Analysis with R Programming (Undergraduate, second-year)

International Finance and Money (Postgraduate, MSc)

 

 

Additional Information

Educational background: 

2018 - 2019 Master of Science in  Economics, Banking and Finance, Adam Smith Business School, University of Glasgow, UK 

2014 - 2018 Bachelor in Economics (Risk Management and Insurance), School of Finance, Nankai University, China  

Summer/Winter school: 

Asian Summer School in Econometrics and Statistics, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences and the Econometric Society (Virtual), July 2022

The 3rd AMSE Summer School: Economic of Growth, Aix-Marseilles School of Economics (Aix-en-Provence, France), July 2022

2021 Delhi Winter School, Delhi School of Economics and the Econometric Society (Virtual), December 2021

Other academic services: 

Chair: Chinese Economists Society 2022 Annual Conference (Virtual). 

Discussant: Chinese Economists Society 2022 Annual Conference (Virtual); Money, Macro and Finance Society 2022 PhD Annual Conference (Edinburgh, UK); Chinese Economic Association 2021 Annual Conference (Virtual).