Jialin Gong

Email: j.gong.1@research.gla.ac.uk

Office: Room 101, 11 Southpark Terrace, University of Glasgow G12 8LG

Research title: The impact of fiscal stimulus package on the Chinese economy

Research Summary

Jialin's research focuses on the effects of China's economic stimulus package, the 4 trillion package, aiming to conduct a comprehensive channel analysis of its consequences. 

Working in progress: 

Inside Political Connections: Firm Loan Access under Economic Stimulus

This paper documents and quantifies whether China’s 2009 stimulus program alleviates the credit constraints on politically-connected firms. 

To What Extent Did the Economic Stimulus Package Cause Credit Misallocation?

A fair investigation of the determinants of bank credit allocation needs to consider both the demand and supply aspects of the process. However, previous studies have neglected the latter due to data limitations. Based on a novel dataset, this paper examines the self-selection process of firms and the subsequent selection process of banks. The self-selection process reflects the demand aspect of firms applying for credit, while the bank-selection process pertains to the supply aspect of banks selecting which firms to lend to. The results aim to provide the credit allocation trend across firms and its real effects during China’s economic stimulus plan of 2009–10.

Working paper: 

Quantity and quality? The real effect of China's stimulus-driven credit expansion at the industry level

This paper studies the effects of China's economic stimulus of 2009-10 on industry investment performance and allocation trends within provinces. I identify industries with strong, weak, and without government support by collecting keywords from official government documents, and estimate the differential impact by applying a difference-in-difference strategy. Quantitatively, industries with government back-up are encouraged to invest more after 2009. However, qualitatively, it results in a less efficient investment of industries with strong government intervention, which causes a poor post-stimulus allocation trend within provinces, particularly in state-dominant sectors and regions with high corruption levels or less-developed financial systems. I further confirm that this is related to the sharp increase in bank loans and severe over-investment after 2009. Overall, my findings support the view that the stimulus-driven credit expansion in China results in more resources being allocated to sectors with weaker growth prospects.

The impact of the economic stimulus package on China's economic growth 

This paper studies the growth effects of China's economic stimulus plan of 2009-10. I use the recently developed regression methods, the error correction model (ECM), and the pooled mean group (PMG) approach, which treats heterogeneous short-run dynamics explicitly within a long-run model. Results suggest that there is a significant long-term negative link between fiscal/credit expansion and growth in China, while the short-term effects are positive. I argue that the stimulus plan is one of the factors behind the slowdown in Chinese growth due to its disproportionate allocation of government expenditure and bank credit. 

Research interests: 

Growth and development (short- and long-run effects of exogenous shocks on output composition, growth, and productivity)

Political economy of emerging markets (political connection, corruption, and regulation)

Financial institution and service (impact and dynamics of access to bank lending)

Empirical corporate finance and investment 


Travel grants (sponsored by): Spanish Finance Association in 2023; Money, Macro and Finance Society, Bank of England, and Heriot-Watt University in 2022


European Economic Association & Econometric Society, European Summer Meeting (Barcelona, Spain), 28th Aug-1st Sep 2023

Spanish Finance Association, 30th Finance Forum Ph.D. Mentoring Day-ahead (M ́alaga, Spain), 4th Jul 2023 

Royal Economic Society & Scottish Economic Society, Annual Conference (Glasgow, UK), 3-5th Apr 2023

Chinese Economic Association (Europe and UK), Annual Conference (Durham, UK), 12-13th Nov 2022

PhD-Economics Virtual Seminar, 6th Oct 2022

Cornell University, 100 Years of Economic Development Conference (Virtual), 15-17th Sep 2022

Shanghai Jiaotong University, Antai College of Economics-Management Doctoral Students Forum (Virtual), 14th Jul 2022

Aix-Marseilles School of Economic, Summer School Presentation (Aix-en-Provence, France), 5-7th Jul 2022

Chinese Economists Society, Annual Conference (Virtual), 24-26th Jun 2022

Scottish Economic Society, Annual Conference (Glasgow, UK), 25-27th Apr 2022

Money, Macro and Finance Society, Ph.D. Annual Conference (Edinburgh, UK), 21-23rd Apr 2022

University of Glasgow, PGR Symposium (Glasgow, UK), 3rd Mar 2022

Nankai University, Invited Virtual Presentation, 29th Jan 2022

Chinese Economic Association (Europe and UK), Annual Conference (Virtual), 4-5th Dec 2021

Selected paper acceptance: 2023 World Finance Conference; 2022 North East Universities Development Consortium Conference. 

Selected workshop participation: 2022 Asian Summer School in Econometrics and Statistics, Econometric Society; 2022 Summer School in Economics of Growth, Aix-Marseilles School of Economics


Principles of Macroeconomics (Undergraduate, first-year)

Mathematical Methods for Macroeconomics (Undergraduate, first-year)

Introductory Statistic for Economics (Undergraduate, second-year)

Data Analysis with R Programming (Undergraduate, second-year)

International Finance and Money (Postgraduate, MSc)

Econometrics for Finance (Postgraduate, MSc)



Additional Information

Educational background: 

2018 - 2019 Master of Science in Economics, Banking, and Finance, Adam Smith Business School, University of Glasgow, UK 

2014 - 2018 Bachelor in Economics (Risk Management and Insurance), School of Finance, Nankai University, China


Other academic services: 

Chair: Chinese Economists Society 2022 Annual Conference (Virtual). 

Discussant: Chinese Economists Society 2022 Annual Conference (Virtual); Money, Macro and Finance Society 2022 Ph.D. Annual Conference (Edinburgh, UK); Chinese Economic Association 2021 Annual Conference (Virtual).