Across the world, nations are ramping up investment into renewables as fossil fuels are phased out. But climate targets are being met at the expense of those dependent on the industries facing closure. A significant portion of the EU’s emissions reductions, for instance, is coming from closure of heavy industry, with 2030 climate targets being met “on the backs of working people” according to the European Trade Union Confederation. This is not socially or economically sustainable and will only lead to green policymaking being perceived as directed against industrial workers.

In Scotland we are seeing similar trends. The closure of the Grangemouth oil refinery has become a lesson of failure of the just transition with 400 direct and 2800 supply chain jobs put at risk. Grangemouth only anticipates the avalanche of job losses to follow in the offshore industry. A report by Robert Gordon University predicted the worst-case scenario of this same figure, 400 oil and gas jobs, being lost every two weeks in Scotland between now and the early 2030s. And indeed, just last week one of the largest North Sea oil and gas contractors, Petrofac, filed for administration, putting over 2000 jobs at risk in Scotland. This might be an energy transition, but it is nowhere near close to one that is fair for workers and communities.

Some countries, though, are phasing out fossil fuels the right way. In 2020, Spain pledged to close its coal-fired power capacity by 2030. Recognising the challenges this presents coal-dependent regions, the Spanish government designed a tender process that prioritises renewable developers which bring local investment.

The first was awarded to Endesa in 2022 following closure of the Teruel power plant. The company will invest €1.5 billion to develop 14 wind and solar plants in the same town. €60 million is also being invested into local employment and environmental initiatives like sustainable tourism.

Three subsequent contracts were provisionally awarded in 2025 following closure of the Puente Nuevo coal-fired plant in Córdoba, with a combined investment of €370 million into hydro and solar power as well as training for local workers, and employment for women and power plant workers.

The Spanish government connected fossil fuel phase out, renewables and local jobs through a simple but powerful market-oriented mechanism: an evaluation process that scored socioeconomic impact highly. In Andorra this was weighted at 55%, and in Córdoba, at 64%. This mechanism comes at no financial cost to the government. Worker and community interests are simply prioritised in distributing funds to subsidised renewables sectors.

This process sits in stark contrast to Scotland. In 2024, the Scottish Zero Emission Bus Challenge Fund (ScotZEB2) weighted‘wider community and decarbonisation benefit’, including jobs, at 10%. 361 of the 523 contracts were won by overseas manufacturers, and 162 by Scottish firms. One of these, Larbert-based bus manufacturer Alexander Dennis, announced 160 jobs at risk of redundancy only a few months later. The company blamed untenable cost competition from the allocation process which prioritised the cheapest bids over domestic socioeconomic impact.  

Scotland and Spain are of course different countries with different manufacturing bases and supply chains. But the fundamental aspect remains the same: industrial closure will devastate communities if not intentionally planned. And if Spain is too distant an example, then lessons can be learned closer to home. The UK government recently launched the Clean Energy Jobs Plan to generate good quality employment in the clean energy sector. As part of the plan, to access the Clean Industry Bonus (which provides funding to offshore wind developers), employers will have to commit to Fair Work Charters, which could include payment into skills funds and providing trade union access. Like Spain’s just transition tenders, this would not come as an expense to the government but would be a case of redistributing earmarked funds.

A recently published report by the Just Transition Commission outlined a similar strategy for Scotland that makes access to public investment and contracts conditional on socioeconomic protections. For instance, to receive public money, renewable firms could be asked to invest into skills funds, provide trade union access, or commit to permanent contracts.

Incorporating this advice, last week, the Scottish government announced the Grangemouth Jobs Prioritisation Scheme. Firms accessing the £25 million Just Transition Fund must prioritise hiring workers made redundant by the Grangemouth oil refinery closure.

Though a win for Grangemouth, this is just one part of the picture of justice in the energy transition. In Spain’s just transition tender for Córdoba, ‘jobs for coal workers’ is one of six components that constitute ‘socioeconomic impacts’, made up of total jobs, jobs for women, reskilling, distributed energy, and local investments.

The approach of the Scottish and UK governments to date has been crisis-response to industrial closure after the fact with ad hoc protections for workers. In June, Alexander Dennis announced closure of its Falkirk and Larbert sites putting 400 jobs at risk, stating competition from Chinese bus manufacturers (which won 287 of the 523 ScotZEB2 contracts) making operations untenable. Three months later the Scottish government announced a furlough scheme to protect workers until manufacturing can recommence. Owners of the Lindsey Oil Refinery in Lincolnshire filed for insolvency in June and workers today are urging the UK government to deploy a similar furlough scheme. In April, as a last resort to prevent closure of the Scunthorpe plant, the UK government announced it would take control of British Steel.

The Scottish and UK governments are clearly capable of designing an economically viable green transition. They must work together, and with unions and industry, to ensure that jobs protection guarantees, training, or government stakes are deployed as part of a proactive strategy of fossil fuel phase out, renewable investment and net zero ambition.

Riyoko Shibe is an energy historian at the University of Glasgow and an independent researcher for the Just Transition Commission

This article first appeared in The Scotsman on 8 November 2025.

First published: 17 November 2025

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