Research

Professor Uwe Sunde, University of Munich

Decomposing Comparative Development 1880-2020: A Quantitative Dynamic Analysis
Wednesday, 7 October. 15:00
Room 630, James McCune Smith Building

Abstract

This paper demonstrates that a tractable heterogeneous agent endogenous growth model can quantitatively match the stylized empirical facts of long-run development trajectories of income, life expectancy, and fertility for 86 countries over the past 140 years. A decomposition of comparative development differences into contributions of country-specific ``deep determinants'', accumulation forces during the historical development process, and balanced growth dynamics sheds new light on the mechanisms leading to country-specific differences in development and establishes a link between the largely disparate literatures on endogenous growth, comparative development, and growth accounting. Structural estimation results show that historical accumulation dynamics explain most of today's comparative development patterns. A quantification of the demographic dividend suggests implications for future growth dynamics.

Bio

Uwe Sunde is Professor of Economics at LMU Munich, a position he has held since 2012. His research spans population economics, long-term economic growth and development, demographic economics, political economy, behavioural economics and labour economics.

He previously held a professorship at the University of St. Gallen and worked as a Research Associate at IZA in Bonn. He received his PhD from the University of Bonn in 2003 and was awarded the Gossen Prize in 2015. He is a member of Academia Europaea and received an honorary doctorate from the University of Lucerne in 2023.

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First published: 1 October 2026