Professor Juan Morales
- Professor of Statistical Ecology (Ecology & Environmental Change)
email:
Juan.Morales@glasgow.ac.uk
Graham Kerr Building, room 314, level 3, Glasgow, Glasgow City, Scotland, G12 8QQ
Research interests
Quantitative ecology and ecological modelling. Species interactions, movement and dispersal, population dynamics, and disease ecology.
Google scholar profile: https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=i9J_tRYAAAAJ&hl=en
Research groups
Publications
2023
Felici, F., Gurevitz, J. M., Mortarini, M. and Morales, J. M. (2023) Hierarchical forecasting models of stink bug population dynamics for pest management. Crop Protection, 172, 106330. (doi: 10.1016/j.cropro.2023.106330)
Gaskell, J. , Campioni, N., Morales, J. M. , Husmeier, D. and Torney, C. J. (2023) Inferring the interaction rules of complex systems with graph neural networks and approximate Bayesian computation. Journal of the Royal Society: Interface, 20(198), 20220676. (doi: 10.1098/rsif.2022.0676) (PMID:36596456)
2022
Jarrett, C., Haydon, D. T. , Morales, J. M. , Ferreira, D. F., Forzi, F. A., Welch, A. J., Powell, L. L. and Matthiopoulos, J. (2022) Integration of mark–recapture and acoustic detections for unbiased population estimation in animal communities. Ecology, 103(10), e3769. (doi: 10.1002/ecy.3769) (PMID:35620844)
Morán‐López, T., Ruiz‐Suarez, S., Aldabe, J. and Morales, J. M. (2022) Improving inferences and predictions of species environmental responses with occupancy data. Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 13(7), pp. 1540-1551. (doi: 10.1111/2041-210X.13875)
2021
Campioni, N., Husmeier, D. , Morales, J. , Gaskell, J. and Torney, C. J. (2021) Inferring microscale properties of interacting systems from macroscale observations. Physical Review Research, 3(4), 043074. (doi: 10.1103/PhysRevResearch.3.043074)
Sasal, Y., Amico, G. C. and Morales, J. M. (2021) Host spatial structure and disperser activity determine mistletoe infection patterns. Oikos, 130(3), pp. 440-452. (doi: 10.1111/oik.07771)
Torney, C. J. , Morales, J. M. and Husmeier, D. (2021) A hierarchical machine learning framework for the analysis of large scale animal movement data. Movement Ecology, 9, 6. (doi: 10.1186/s40462-021-00242-0) (PMID:33602302)
Pizo, M.A., Morales, J. M. , Ovaskainen, O. and Carlo, T.A. (2021) Frugivory specialization in birds and fruit chemistry structure mutualistic networks across the neotropics. American Naturalist, (doi: 10.1086/712381) (PMID:33523785)
Bedriñana‑Romano, L., Hucke-Gaete, R., Viddi, F. A., Johnson, D., Zerbini, A. N., Morales, J. , Mate, B. and Palacios, D. M. (2021) Defining priority areas for blue whale conservation and investigating overlap with vessel traffic in Chilean Patagonia, using a fast-fitting movement model. Scientific Reports, 11, 2709. (doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-82220-5) (PMID:33526800) (PMCID:PMC7851173)
Falcón-Cortés, A., Boyer, D., Merrill, E., Frair, J. L. and Morales, J. M. (2021) Hierarchical, memory-based movement models for translocated elk (cervus canadensis). Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution, 9, 702925. (doi: 10.3389/fevo.2021.702925)
Gurevitz, J. M., Antman, J. G., Laneri, K. and Morales, J. M. (2021) Temperature, traveling, slums, and housing drive dengue transmission in a non-endemic metropolis. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 15(6), e0009465. (doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0009465) (PMID:34115753) (PMCID:PMC8221794)
Morales, J. M. and López, T. M. (2021) Mechanistic models of seed dispersal by animals. Oikos, 2022(2), e08328. (doi: 10.1111/oik.08328)
2020
Campioni, N., Husmeier, D. , Morales, J. M. , Gaskell, J. and Torney, C. J. (2020) Modelling multiscale collective behavior with Gaussian processes. In: Ladde, G. and Samia, N. (eds.) Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Statistics: Theory and Applications (ICSTA'20). Avestia Publishing: Ottawa, Canada, p. 124. ISBN 9781927877685 (doi: 10.11159/icsta20.124)
Gaskell, J. , Campioni, N., Morales, J. M. , Husmeier, D. and Torney, C. J. (2020) Approximate Bayesian inference for individual-based models with emergent dynamics. In: Ladde, G. and Samia, N. (eds.) Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Statistics: Theory and Applications (ICSTA'20). Avestia Publishing: Ottawa, Canada, p. 125. ISBN 9781927877685 (doi: 10.11159/icsta20.125)
Ramos, D. L., Pizo, M. A., Ribeiro, M. C., Cruz, R. S., Morales, J. M. and Ovaskainen, O. (2020) Forest and connectivity loss drive changes in movement behavior of bird species. Ecography, 43(8), pp. 1203-1214. (doi: 10.1111/ecog.04888)
Ruiz-Suarez, S., Leos-Barajas, V., Alvarez-Castro, I. and Morales, J. M. (2020) Using approximate Bayesian inference for a "steps and turns" continuous-time random walk observed at regular time intervals. PeerJ, 8(2), e8452. (doi: 10.7717/peerj.8452) (PMID:32095333) (PMCID:PMC7020826)
Morán-López, W.D., Vizzachero, B.S., Fontanella, A., Salinas, L., Arana, C., Amico, G., Pizo, M.A., Carlo, T.A. and Morales, J. M. (2020) Can network metrics predict vulnerability and species roles in bird-dispersed plant communities? Not without behaviour. Ecology Letters, 23(2), pp. 348-358. (doi: 10.1111/ele.13439) (PMID:31814305)
Morán‐López, T., González‐Castro, A., Morales, J. M. and Nogales, M. (2020) Behavioural complementarity among frugivorous birds and lizards can promote plant diversity in island ecosystems. Functional Ecology, 34(1), pp. 182-193. (doi: 10.1111/1365-2435.13476)
Williams, H. J. et al. (2020) Optimizing the use of biologgers for movement ecology research. Journal of Animal Ecology, 89(1), pp. 186-206. (doi: 10.1111/1365-2656.13094) (PMID:31424571) (PMCID:PMC7041970)
2019
Fenoglio, M.S., Videla, M., Salvo, A. and Morales, J. M. (2019) Dispersal of the pea leaf miner liriomyza huidobrensis (Blanchard, 1926) (diptera: Agromyzidae): A field experiment = Dispersión del minador de hojas liriomyza huidobrensis (Blanchard, 1926) (diptera: agromyzidae): un experimento a campo. Revista de la Facultad de Ciencias Agrarias, 51(2), pp. 343-352.
di Virgilio, A., Lambertucci, S. A. and Morales, J. M. (2019) Sustainable grazing management in rangelands: over a century searching for a silver bullet. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment, 283, 106561. (doi: 10.1016/j.agee.2019.05.020)
Ovaskainen, O., Leal Ramos, D., Slade, E. M., Merckx, T., Tikhonov, G., Pennanen, J., Aurélio Pizo, M., Cezar Ribeiro, M. and Morales, J. M. (2019) Joint species movement modeling: how do traits influence movements? Ecology, 100(4), e02622. (doi: 10.1002/ecy.2622) (PMID:30644540) (PMCID:PMC6850360)
Hooten, M.B., Scharf, H.R. and Morales, J. M. (2019) Running on empty: recharge dynamics from animal movement data. Ecology Letters, 22(2), pp. 377-389. (doi: 10.1111/ele.13198) (PMID:30548152)
Gowda, J.H., Tiribelli, F., Mermoz, M., Kitzberger, T. and Morales, J. M. (2019) Fragmentation modulates the response of dichotomous landscapes to fire and seed dispersal. Ecological Modelling, 392, pp. 22-30. (doi: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2018.10.014)
Tiribelli, F., Morales, J. M. , Gowda, J.H., Mermoz, M. and Kitzberger, T. (2019) Non-additive effects of alternative stable states on landscape flammability in NW Patagonia: fire history and simulation modelling evidence. International Journal of Wildland Fire, 28(2), pp. 149-159. (doi: 10.1071/WF18073)
2018
Morán-López, T., Carlo, T. A., Amico, G. and Morales, J. M. (2018) Diet complementation as a frequency-dependent mechanism conferring advantages to rare plants via dispersal. Functional Ecology, 32(10), pp. 2310-2320. (doi: 10.1111/1365-2435.13152)
Bedriñana-Romano, L., Hucke-Gaete, R., Viddi, F. A., Morales, J. , Williams, R., Ashe, E., Garcés-Vargas, J. and Torres-Florez, J. P. (2018) Integrating multiple data sources for assessing blue whale abundance and distribution in Chilean Northern Patagonia. Diversity and Distributions, 24(7), pp. 991-1004. (doi: 10.1111/ddi.12739)
Sáez, A., Morales, J. M. , Morales, C. L., Harder, L. D. and Aizen, M. A. (2018) The costs and benefits of pollinator dependence: empirically based simulations predict raspberry fruit quality. Ecological Applications, 28(5), pp. 1215-1222. (doi: 10.1002/eap.1720) (PMID:29575300)
Morán-López, T., Carlo, T. A. and Morales, J. (2018) The role of frugivory in plant diversity maintenance – a simulation approach. Ecography, 41(1), pp. 24-31. (doi: 10.1111/ecog.03220)
Articles
Felici, F., Gurevitz, J. M., Mortarini, M. and Morales, J. M. (2023) Hierarchical forecasting models of stink bug population dynamics for pest management. Crop Protection, 172, 106330. (doi: 10.1016/j.cropro.2023.106330)
Gaskell, J. , Campioni, N., Morales, J. M. , Husmeier, D. and Torney, C. J. (2023) Inferring the interaction rules of complex systems with graph neural networks and approximate Bayesian computation. Journal of the Royal Society: Interface, 20(198), 20220676. (doi: 10.1098/rsif.2022.0676) (PMID:36596456)
Jarrett, C., Haydon, D. T. , Morales, J. M. , Ferreira, D. F., Forzi, F. A., Welch, A. J., Powell, L. L. and Matthiopoulos, J. (2022) Integration of mark–recapture and acoustic detections for unbiased population estimation in animal communities. Ecology, 103(10), e3769. (doi: 10.1002/ecy.3769) (PMID:35620844)
Morán‐López, T., Ruiz‐Suarez, S., Aldabe, J. and Morales, J. M. (2022) Improving inferences and predictions of species environmental responses with occupancy data. Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 13(7), pp. 1540-1551. (doi: 10.1111/2041-210X.13875)
Campioni, N., Husmeier, D. , Morales, J. , Gaskell, J. and Torney, C. J. (2021) Inferring microscale properties of interacting systems from macroscale observations. Physical Review Research, 3(4), 043074. (doi: 10.1103/PhysRevResearch.3.043074)
Sasal, Y., Amico, G. C. and Morales, J. M. (2021) Host spatial structure and disperser activity determine mistletoe infection patterns. Oikos, 130(3), pp. 440-452. (doi: 10.1111/oik.07771)
Torney, C. J. , Morales, J. M. and Husmeier, D. (2021) A hierarchical machine learning framework for the analysis of large scale animal movement data. Movement Ecology, 9, 6. (doi: 10.1186/s40462-021-00242-0) (PMID:33602302)
Pizo, M.A., Morales, J. M. , Ovaskainen, O. and Carlo, T.A. (2021) Frugivory specialization in birds and fruit chemistry structure mutualistic networks across the neotropics. American Naturalist, (doi: 10.1086/712381) (PMID:33523785)
Bedriñana‑Romano, L., Hucke-Gaete, R., Viddi, F. A., Johnson, D., Zerbini, A. N., Morales, J. , Mate, B. and Palacios, D. M. (2021) Defining priority areas for blue whale conservation and investigating overlap with vessel traffic in Chilean Patagonia, using a fast-fitting movement model. Scientific Reports, 11, 2709. (doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-82220-5) (PMID:33526800) (PMCID:PMC7851173)
Falcón-Cortés, A., Boyer, D., Merrill, E., Frair, J. L. and Morales, J. M. (2021) Hierarchical, memory-based movement models for translocated elk (cervus canadensis). Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution, 9, 702925. (doi: 10.3389/fevo.2021.702925)
Gurevitz, J. M., Antman, J. G., Laneri, K. and Morales, J. M. (2021) Temperature, traveling, slums, and housing drive dengue transmission in a non-endemic metropolis. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 15(6), e0009465. (doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0009465) (PMID:34115753) (PMCID:PMC8221794)
Morales, J. M. and López, T. M. (2021) Mechanistic models of seed dispersal by animals. Oikos, 2022(2), e08328. (doi: 10.1111/oik.08328)
Ramos, D. L., Pizo, M. A., Ribeiro, M. C., Cruz, R. S., Morales, J. M. and Ovaskainen, O. (2020) Forest and connectivity loss drive changes in movement behavior of bird species. Ecography, 43(8), pp. 1203-1214. (doi: 10.1111/ecog.04888)
Ruiz-Suarez, S., Leos-Barajas, V., Alvarez-Castro, I. and Morales, J. M. (2020) Using approximate Bayesian inference for a "steps and turns" continuous-time random walk observed at regular time intervals. PeerJ, 8(2), e8452. (doi: 10.7717/peerj.8452) (PMID:32095333) (PMCID:PMC7020826)
Morán-López, W.D., Vizzachero, B.S., Fontanella, A., Salinas, L., Arana, C., Amico, G., Pizo, M.A., Carlo, T.A. and Morales, J. M. (2020) Can network metrics predict vulnerability and species roles in bird-dispersed plant communities? Not without behaviour. Ecology Letters, 23(2), pp. 348-358. (doi: 10.1111/ele.13439) (PMID:31814305)
Morán‐López, T., González‐Castro, A., Morales, J. M. and Nogales, M. (2020) Behavioural complementarity among frugivorous birds and lizards can promote plant diversity in island ecosystems. Functional Ecology, 34(1), pp. 182-193. (doi: 10.1111/1365-2435.13476)
Williams, H. J. et al. (2020) Optimizing the use of biologgers for movement ecology research. Journal of Animal Ecology, 89(1), pp. 186-206. (doi: 10.1111/1365-2656.13094) (PMID:31424571) (PMCID:PMC7041970)
Fenoglio, M.S., Videla, M., Salvo, A. and Morales, J. M. (2019) Dispersal of the pea leaf miner liriomyza huidobrensis (Blanchard, 1926) (diptera: Agromyzidae): A field experiment = Dispersión del minador de hojas liriomyza huidobrensis (Blanchard, 1926) (diptera: agromyzidae): un experimento a campo. Revista de la Facultad de Ciencias Agrarias, 51(2), pp. 343-352.
di Virgilio, A., Lambertucci, S. A. and Morales, J. M. (2019) Sustainable grazing management in rangelands: over a century searching for a silver bullet. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment, 283, 106561. (doi: 10.1016/j.agee.2019.05.020)
Ovaskainen, O., Leal Ramos, D., Slade, E. M., Merckx, T., Tikhonov, G., Pennanen, J., Aurélio Pizo, M., Cezar Ribeiro, M. and Morales, J. M. (2019) Joint species movement modeling: how do traits influence movements? Ecology, 100(4), e02622. (doi: 10.1002/ecy.2622) (PMID:30644540) (PMCID:PMC6850360)
Hooten, M.B., Scharf, H.R. and Morales, J. M. (2019) Running on empty: recharge dynamics from animal movement data. Ecology Letters, 22(2), pp. 377-389. (doi: 10.1111/ele.13198) (PMID:30548152)
Gowda, J.H., Tiribelli, F., Mermoz, M., Kitzberger, T. and Morales, J. M. (2019) Fragmentation modulates the response of dichotomous landscapes to fire and seed dispersal. Ecological Modelling, 392, pp. 22-30. (doi: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2018.10.014)
Tiribelli, F., Morales, J. M. , Gowda, J.H., Mermoz, M. and Kitzberger, T. (2019) Non-additive effects of alternative stable states on landscape flammability in NW Patagonia: fire history and simulation modelling evidence. International Journal of Wildland Fire, 28(2), pp. 149-159. (doi: 10.1071/WF18073)
Morán-López, T., Carlo, T. A., Amico, G. and Morales, J. M. (2018) Diet complementation as a frequency-dependent mechanism conferring advantages to rare plants via dispersal. Functional Ecology, 32(10), pp. 2310-2320. (doi: 10.1111/1365-2435.13152)
Bedriñana-Romano, L., Hucke-Gaete, R., Viddi, F. A., Morales, J. , Williams, R., Ashe, E., Garcés-Vargas, J. and Torres-Florez, J. P. (2018) Integrating multiple data sources for assessing blue whale abundance and distribution in Chilean Northern Patagonia. Diversity and Distributions, 24(7), pp. 991-1004. (doi: 10.1111/ddi.12739)
Sáez, A., Morales, J. M. , Morales, C. L., Harder, L. D. and Aizen, M. A. (2018) The costs and benefits of pollinator dependence: empirically based simulations predict raspberry fruit quality. Ecological Applications, 28(5), pp. 1215-1222. (doi: 10.1002/eap.1720) (PMID:29575300)
Morán-López, T., Carlo, T. A. and Morales, J. (2018) The role of frugivory in plant diversity maintenance – a simulation approach. Ecography, 41(1), pp. 24-31. (doi: 10.1111/ecog.03220)
Book Sections
Campioni, N., Husmeier, D. , Morales, J. M. , Gaskell, J. and Torney, C. J. (2020) Modelling multiscale collective behavior with Gaussian processes. In: Ladde, G. and Samia, N. (eds.) Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Statistics: Theory and Applications (ICSTA'20). Avestia Publishing: Ottawa, Canada, p. 124. ISBN 9781927877685 (doi: 10.11159/icsta20.124)
Gaskell, J. , Campioni, N., Morales, J. M. , Husmeier, D. and Torney, C. J. (2020) Approximate Bayesian inference for individual-based models with emergent dynamics. In: Ladde, G. and Samia, N. (eds.) Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Statistics: Theory and Applications (ICSTA'20). Avestia Publishing: Ottawa, Canada, p. 125. ISBN 9781927877685 (doi: 10.11159/icsta20.125)
Grants
Grants and Awards listed are those received whilst working with the University of Glasgow.
- Assessing the risk of insect vector-borne diseases in Scotland and their response to environmental change.
UK Research and Innovation
2023 - 2026
Supervision
- Burgueno, Mercedes
Reciprocal interactions between behaviour and parasites in the sheep-Fasciola system - Ten Doeschate, Mariel
Pathology of Strandings Surveillance Data
Professional activities & recognition
Editorial boards
- 2021 - 2023: Ecological Applications
- 2014 - 2023: Proceedings of the Royal Society B
- 2013 - 2023: Movement Ecology
Research datasets
2021
Torney, C. , Morales, J. and Husmeier, D. (2021) A hierarchical machine learning framework for the analysis of large scale animal movement data. [Data Collection]
2020
Kabalika, Z., Morrison, T. , McGill, R. , Munishi, L. K., Ekwem, D., Mahene, W. L., Lobora, A. L., Newton, J. , Morales, J., Haydon, D. and Hopcraft, G. (2020) Tracking animal movements using biomarkers from tail hairs: A novel approach for animal geolocating from sulfur isoscapes. [Data Collection]