UofG Centre for Public Policy

21 May 2026: In a live webinar a week before the Scottish Election 2026, Centre for Public Policy and Ipsos experts discussed whether independence still matters to voters and introduced a new joint report. 

The Centre for Public Policy, in collaboration with Ipsos, hosted its third Election 2026 webinar on 30 April, looking at whether independence still matters to voters in Scotland.

The webinar introduced a new joint report on the role of the constitutional question in driving voting behaviour, written by Mark McGeoghegan, Centre for Public Policy Research Associate and Associate Advisory Director at Ipsos.

Expert panel

Chaired by the Centre for Public Policy’s Associate Director Professor Kezia Dugdale, the panel consisted of:

• Professor Nicola McEwen, Director, UofG Centre for Public Policy
• Mark McGeoghegan, Research Associate, UofG Centre for Public Policy and Associate Advisory Director, Ipsos Scotland
• Rachel Ormston, Research Director, Ipsos Scotland 

What happened?

Mark McGeoghegan opened the webinar by introducing the realignments in Scottish politics from 1999 through to the current election and how the constitution has fallen down the agenda. 

He shared statistics that show constitutional preference remains the single strongest driver of voting intention. Mark concluded by demonstrating and discussing the comparable voting switches between party blocs. 

Next, Rachel Ormiston introduced us to the role of tactical voting in the upcoming election both in the constituency and the list vote and why this might be. She highlighted that this election may hold a different focus on tactical voting, in order to ‘keep other parties out’. 

Finally, Professor Nicola McEwen noted it is evident independence does still matter to voters, particularly for those who are pro-independence. She explained Scotland remains split down the middle in terms of favouring and not favouring independence. 

Nicola concluded with thoughts on the importance of a broader reflection upon the issue of independence from wider society, instead of leaving the issue to political chance. 

Opening the Q&A section of the webinar, Professor Kezia Dugdale addressed the panel to cover a series of questions, which covered themes of:

• How aware of the system voters are, and why might this matter
• The relationship between low turnout and undecided voters
• Which political party might be most worried about turnout 
• Understanding a sense of Labours position in the polling 
• The debate around more devolution 
• Whether constitutional change in the UK is related 
• If SNP remain in government, what does that mean for the next 5 years of Scottish politics in terms of legitimacy

 

Watch the webinar in full on the Centre for Public Policy YouTube channel

Missed our other election 2026 webinars?

Visit our YouTube page to catch up on all four webinars

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First published: 21 May 2026