UofG Centre for Public Policy

1 May 2026: A new report, based on February and March 2026 polling by Ipsos, explores the drivers of voting behaviour in Scotland. It finds that constitutional preferences remain the strongest determinant of voting intention among Scottish voters.

As issues like healthcare, immigration, education, and the cost of living have risen on the political agenda, the salience of the constitutional question has declined.

However, while salience has declined, this report finds that constitutional preferences remain the strongest determinant of the choice voters make in Scotland.

The report, Does Independence Still Matter?, was written by Mark McGeoghegan and published jointly by Ipsos and the University of Glasgow’s Centre for Public Policy on Friday 1 May 2026.

The key findings are:

• Constitutional preferences are the strongest determinant of voting intention among Scottish voters. While left-right and libertarian-authoritarian positioning also matter, they matter within constitutional blocs, not between constitutional blocs, and voters are highly unlikely to switch from one constitutional bloc to another.

• While the overall size of the left-liberal bloc in Scotland is similar to the last election, there are fewer left-liberal voters among those who support the Union. A fifth of total left-liberal and pro-union voters currently intend to switch to a right-conservative party, driven principally by Labour voters switching to Reform UK. Ipsos’ latest polling suggests a quarter of 2021 Labour voters now intend to vote for Nigel Farage’s party.

• The strength of constitutional preference as a driver of voting intention is helping prop up the cohesion of the left-liberal party bloc in Scotland. 28% of SNP, ‘left-liberal’ voters actually lean towards the authoritarian end of the libertarian-authoritarian scale, but lack of a viable, pro-independence, right-conservative party to switch to.

The report is the result of 2026 polling carried out by Ipsos, a leading organisation in market research, as analysed by Mark McGeoghegan, Research Associate at the University of Glasgow Centre for Public Policy and Associate Advisory Director at Ipsos.

Read the report: Does Independence Still Matter? An Ipsos and Centre for Public Policy report

If you would like more information, please contact public-policy@glasgow.ac.uk.

---

^{Photo by Chris Flexen on Unsplash}

First published: 1 May 2026