Professor Nicola McEwen speaks to Good Morning Scotland about the motion of no confidence in the First Minister
Published: 26 April 2024
Professor Nicola McEwen, Director of the Centre for Public Policy, spoke to Good Morning Scotland’s Andrew Black about the Scottish Greens decision to back the Scottish Conservative’s motion of no confidence in the First Minister.
The interview covered what the coming days will look like for Humza Yousaf and the process of a vote of no confidence in a First Minister.
Professor McEwen explained that in the coming days we’re going to see politics as power play before us. She noted not all of it will be visible, there will be lots of negotiations behind the scenes but clearly Humza Yousaf’s future is in some doubt.
If we get to a vote next week (and he may decide to resign before that happens) there are two potential outcomes:
- He may lose, in which case he will be in a politically untenable position.
- He wins by the smallest margin and is indebted to whoever helped him get across the line.
Listen to the Interview here: Good Morning Scotland Interview with Professor Nicola McEwen [36 minutes in]
The 28 days
Nicola outlined the key distinctions between a vote of no confidence in the First Minister and a vote of no confidence in the Scottish Government. She explained that because it’s a vote of no confidence in the First Minister, there would be no automatic trigger for his resignation, but it would be about how that felt and the position he finds himself in. He may then feel under pressure to resign at that point.
If he tenders his resignation, the Scottish Parliament would have to nominate a replacement within 28 days. That candidate would have to have the confidence of the Scottish Parliament within the 28-day period. If they can’t find a First Minister within those 28 days, it is possible we could be heading towards an early election, but there’s a long way to go before then. She underlined there are risks for all political parties here.
It could be that Humza Yousaf makes a deal within his own party not to step down immediately but to initiate a process for his replacement, which could affect how things happen in the confidence vote.
A narrow margin
On Ash Reagan’s role in this vote, there will be a decision for Humza Yousaf and the party’s leadership as to how far they are willing to go in their policy commitments for survival. This scenario would get Humza Yousaf to a tie in the confidence motion, and he would survive with the casting vote of the Presiding Officer. However, he would survive as a weaker leader than he is now, so even if he wins under this scenario his authority will be undermined.
First published: 26 April 2024
