Echoes of ague: learning from Scotland’s past to anticipate future malaria receptivity — cross-century socioecology and planetary health
Supervisors:
Dr Luca Nelli, School of Biodiversity, One Health & Veterinary Medicine
Dr Catriona MacDonald, School of Humanities
Prof Heather Ferguson, School of Biodiversity, One Health & Veterinary Medicine
Summary:
Scotland hosts several native Anopheles mosquitoes—vectors of malaria worldwide and historically active in temperate Europe—yet a climate-aware picture of where they occur today, and how this relates to Scotland’s historical records of “ague” (malaria-like fevers), remains incomplete. This PhD integrates parish-level historical evidence (Old/New Statistical Accounts, hospital ledgers and other contemporaneous sources) with modern, georeferenced records from the Mosquito Scotland project (wetland surveys, long-term sites, verified citizen science), augmented by targeted new field sampling to fill geographic gaps.
The study will link historical parish descriptions and boundaries to present-day maps to enable like-for-like comparisons across time. Statistical models will correct for uneven reporting and detection in both archives and modern surveys, providing best estimates of where species occur, when they are active, and when conditions are receptive for transmission under current and plausible future climates. Uncertainty will be quantified and shown alongside all outputs.
Deliverables include an open Historical–Contemporary Malaria Atlas for Scotland with downloadable data and reproducible code, plus concise, decision-ready briefs for public bodies. By bringing history, ecology and data science together, the project turns Scotland’s past evidence into actionable insight for contemporary vector surveillance and public-health planning.