The next Scottish Parliament elections are about a year away – in ‘political time,’ that is, a very long time indeed. Reflecting on the last Scottish elections in 2021, a significant amount has transpired in the intervening period, not least the 2024 Westminster election, which appears to have reshaped the Scottish political landscape. Reports at the time suggested that Scotland had “fallen out of love” with the SNP and that, without fundamental root and branch reform, the party was set to lose the 2026 Holyrood elections. Then the Labour Party’s programme for governing the UK began to take shape.

Nigel Farage steered the Reform Party to poll surges that have surprised many, and the Conservatives in Scotland continued to look for a path out of the wilderness. How will these different factors shape the electoral contest over the next year?

First published: 28 May 2025

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