Dr Alexandra Richards
- Research Associate in Infectious Disease Epidemiology (Public Health)
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9886-8104Biography
Alexandra Richards is a Research Associate based in the School of Health and Wellbeing at the University of Glasgow. She is a mathematical modeller and epidemiologist, specialising in understanding the population-level dynamics of tuberculosis (TB). Her current work focusses on modelling the spatial heterogeneity of TB transmission in Malawi, Zambia, and South Africa, as part of the ZAMSA-TB study.
She completed her PhD at London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, where she focussed on understanding the natural history of TB to create a new model structure for TB transmission models and to understand the impact of asymptomatic disease case finding outputs. After finishing her PhD, she continued working at LSHTM with the LIGHT consortium, understanding the impact of addressing disparities in treatment coverage and risk of disease in men.
Research interests
Infectious disease modelling, tuberculosis, social and structural determinants of disease
Publications
2026
Horton, Katherine C., Richards, Alexandra S. 
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9886-8104, Schwalb, Alvaro and Houben, Rein M. G. J.
(2026)
Trade-offs in diagnostic algorithm, population coverage, and duration of community screening for tuberculosis: a modelling study.
PLoS Medicine, 23(4),
e1005040.
(doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1005040)
(PMID:41941481)
(PMCID:PMC13068317)
Richards, A. S. et al. (2026) Modelling the impact of increasing tuberculosis treatment coverage and addressing determinants of risk in men. Communications Medicine, (doi: 10.1038/ s43856-026-01536-3) (PMID:41896345) (In Press)
Portnoy, A. et al. (2026) The potential impact of reduced international donor funding on the household economic burden of tuberculosis in low- and middle-income countries: a modelling study. PLoS Medicine, 23(2), e1004946. (doi: 10.1371/journal. pmed.1004946) (PMID:41719377) (PMCID:PMC12948071)
2025
Clark, Rebecca A, McQuaid, C Finn, Richards, Alexandra S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9886-8104, Bakker, Roel, Sumner, Tom, Prŷs-Jones, Tomos O, Houben, Rein M G J, White, Richard G and Horton, Katherine C
(2025)
The potential impact of reductions in international donor funding on tuberculosis in low-income and middle-income countries: a modelling study.
Lancet Global Health, 13(9),
e1517-e1524.
(doi: 10.1016/S2214-109X(25)00232-3)
(PMID:40659023)
Pelzer, P. T. et al. (2025) Effectiveness of the primary Bacillus Calmette-Guérin vaccine against the risk of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection and tuberculosis disease: a meta-analysis of individual participant data. Lancet Microbe, 6(2), 100961. (doi: 10.1016/j.lanmic.2024.100961) (PMID:39709975) (PMCID:PMC12778190)
2023
Horton, Katherine C., Richards, Alexandra S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9886-8104, Emery, Jon C., Esmail, Hanif and Houben, Rein M. G. J.
(2023)
Reevaluating progression and pathways following Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection within the spectrum of tuberculosis.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 120(47),
e222118612.
(doi: 10.1073/pnas.2221186120)
(PMID:37963250)
(PMCID:PMC10666121)
Richards, A. S. et al. (2023) Quantifying progression and regression across the spectrum of pulmonary tuberculosis: a data synthesis study. Lancet Global Health, 11(5), e684-e692. (doi: 10.1016/S2214-109X(23)00082-7) (PMID:36966785) (PMCID:PMC10126316)
Sossen, B. et al. (2023) The natural history of untreated pulmonary tuberculosis in adults: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Lancet Respiratory Medicine, 11(4), pp. 367-379. (doi: 10.1016/S2213-2600(23)00097-8) (PMID:36966795)
2021
Frascella, Beatrice, Richards, Alexandra S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9886-8104, Sossen, Bianca, Emery, Jon C., Odone, Anna, Law, Irwin, Onozaki, Ikushi, Esmail, Hanif and Houben, Rein M.G. J.
(2021)
Subclinical tuberculosis disease—a review and analysis of prevalence surveys to inform definitions, burden, associations, and screening methodology.
Clinical Infectious Diseases, 73(3),
e830-e841.
(doi: 10.1093/cid/ciaa1402)
(PMID:32936877)
(PMCID:PMC8326537)
Articles
Horton, Katherine C., Richards, Alexandra S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9886-8104, Schwalb, Alvaro and Houben, Rein M. G. J.
(2026)
Trade-offs in diagnostic algorithm, population coverage, and duration of community screening for tuberculosis: a modelling study.
PLoS Medicine, 23(4),
e1005040.
(doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1005040)
(PMID:41941481)
(PMCID:PMC13068317)
Richards, A. S. et al. (2026) Modelling the impact of increasing tuberculosis treatment coverage and addressing determinants of risk in men. Communications Medicine, (doi: 10.1038/ s43856-026-01536-3) (PMID:41896345) (In Press)
Portnoy, A. et al. (2026) The potential impact of reduced international donor funding on the household economic burden of tuberculosis in low- and middle-income countries: a modelling study. PLoS Medicine, 23(2), e1004946. (doi: 10.1371/journal. pmed.1004946) (PMID:41719377) (PMCID:PMC12948071)
Clark, Rebecca A, McQuaid, C Finn, Richards, Alexandra S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9886-8104, Bakker, Roel, Sumner, Tom, Prŷs-Jones, Tomos O, Houben, Rein M G J, White, Richard G and Horton, Katherine C
(2025)
The potential impact of reductions in international donor funding on tuberculosis in low-income and middle-income countries: a modelling study.
Lancet Global Health, 13(9),
e1517-e1524.
(doi: 10.1016/S2214-109X(25)00232-3)
(PMID:40659023)
Pelzer, P. T. et al. (2025) Effectiveness of the primary Bacillus Calmette-Guérin vaccine against the risk of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection and tuberculosis disease: a meta-analysis of individual participant data. Lancet Microbe, 6(2), 100961. (doi: 10.1016/j.lanmic.2024.100961) (PMID:39709975) (PMCID:PMC12778190)
Horton, Katherine C., Richards, Alexandra S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9886-8104, Emery, Jon C., Esmail, Hanif and Houben, Rein M. G. J.
(2023)
Reevaluating progression and pathways following Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection within the spectrum of tuberculosis.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 120(47),
e222118612.
(doi: 10.1073/pnas.2221186120)
(PMID:37963250)
(PMCID:PMC10666121)
Richards, A. S. et al. (2023) Quantifying progression and regression across the spectrum of pulmonary tuberculosis: a data synthesis study. Lancet Global Health, 11(5), e684-e692. (doi: 10.1016/S2214-109X(23)00082-7) (PMID:36966785) (PMCID:PMC10126316)
Sossen, B. et al. (2023) The natural history of untreated pulmonary tuberculosis in adults: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Lancet Respiratory Medicine, 11(4), pp. 367-379. (doi: 10.1016/S2213-2600(23)00097-8) (PMID:36966795)
Frascella, Beatrice, Richards, Alexandra S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9886-8104, Sossen, Bianca, Emery, Jon C., Odone, Anna, Law, Irwin, Onozaki, Ikushi, Esmail, Hanif and Houben, Rein M.G. J.
(2021)
Subclinical tuberculosis disease—a review and analysis of prevalence surveys to inform definitions, burden, associations, and screening methodology.
Clinical Infectious Diseases, 73(3),
e830-e841.
(doi: 10.1093/cid/ciaa1402)
(PMID:32936877)
(PMCID:PMC8326537)
Prior publications
Article
Allison Portnoy et al. (2026) The potential impact of reduced international donor funding on the household economic burden of tuberculosis in low- and middle-income countries: A modeling study PLOS Medicine Crossref. (doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1004946)
Stover J et al. (2025) Effects of reductions in US foreign assistance on HIV, tuberculosis, family planning, and maternal and child health: a modelling study. The Lancet. Global health Europe PubMed Central. (doi: 10.1016/s2214-109x(25)00281-5)
Katherine C Horton, Ty McCaffrey, Alexandra S Richards, Alvaro Schwalb, Rein M G J Houben (2024) Estimating the Impact of Tuberculosis Pathways on Transmission—What Is the Gap Left by Passive Case Finding? The Journal of Infectious Diseases Crossref Metadata Search. ISSN 1537-6613 (doi: 10.1093/infdis/jiae390)
Jon C Emery et al. (2023) Estimating the contribution of subclinical tuberculosis disease to transmission: An individual patient data analysis from prevalence surveys eLife Crossref Metadata Search. ISSN 2050-084X (doi: 10.7554/elife.82469)
Jon C. Emery, Alexandra S. Richards, Katie D. Dale, C. Finn McQuaid, Richard G. White, Justin T. Denholm, Rein M. G. J. Houben (2021) Self-clearance of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection: implications for lifetime risk and population at-risk of tuberculosis disease Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences Crossref. (doi: 10.1098/rspb.2020.1635)
Other
Katherine C. Horton, Alexandra S. Richards, Alvaro Schwalb, Rein M. G. J. Houben () Exploring trade-offs in diagnostic algorithm, population coverage, and duration of community screening for tuberculosis Crossref Metadata Search. (doi: 10.1101/2025.08.22.25334237)
