4 November 2025: In this blog Dr Maha Rafi Atal writes about the upcoming COP30 climate summit and the role Donald Trump has played in watering down global environmental commitments during his first year in office. 

Blog by Dr Maha Rafi Atal  

As the world gears up for the COP30 climate summit in Brazil, the chaos wrought by the Trump Administration looms large. Since coming to office in January, Trump has withdrawn the United States from the Paris Climate Agreement, weakened environmental regulations governing US businesses, and rescinded Biden-era tax credits to promote the use of wind and solar energy. In addition, the administration’s aggressive tariff policy is affecting how other countries prepare for COP. 

First, the Trump Administration is putting pressure on countries to water down their own environmental regulations in exchange for tariff relief. The European Union, for example, imposes a tax on companies in certain key industries who export into the EU if their production processes do not meet European environmental standards. This “carbon border” (CBAM) aims to deter companies from offshoring their production to countries with lower standards. Regulations like these can play an important role in reducing emissions in our globalised economy. Yet with Trump pressuring the EU to exempt US businesses from CBAM as a condition of withdrawing the tariffs, the EU may be tempted to back down. Moreover, other countries may be deterred from adopting such regulation, slowing down the path to Net Zero. 

This puts particular pressure on the UK. The post-Brexit trade deal requires the UK to maintain close regulatory alignment with the EU on certain goods, and indeed, the UK has already committed to introduce its own carbon border in 2027. Yet the UK government  has also touted freer trade with the US as a means to generate economic growth. As I warned in February, the Trump Administration’s demand that trading partners sacrifice climate standards for US market access may force the UK to choose between its two allies. 

Second, with the carbon border raising the cost of exporting to Europe, and the Trump tariffs raising the cost of exporting to the US, many countries around the world are seeking other options to sell their products. This creates an opportunity for high emitters like Russia, China and the Gulf states to build their own trading networks with developing countries who cannot afford to pay the extra charges for access to European or American markets. Such networks can create “sacrifice zones,” or regions of the world that become dumping grounds for environmentally harmful products, damaging local environments and adding a further obstacle to climate transition.  

Third, the tariffs have curtailed global economic growth. Companies around the world are putting funds that might otherwise have gone to growing their business and hiring new staff towards paying the extra cost of tariffs. That lack of investment could take $2 trillion out of world GDP over the next 2 years. Many of the issues up for discussion at COP30 require cash contributions from governments, including to help poor countries access renewable energy and to help regions affected by climate disasters like wildfires and floods address the damage caused. 

While governments may feel they cannot afford to move forward with these commitments in the uncertain economic environment unleashed by Trump’s policies, the planet cannot afford for them to wait. 

Author 

Dr Maha Rafi Atal is the Adam Smith Senior Lecturer in Political Economy at the University of Glasgow. She takes a political economy approach to the study of corporate power. In addition to her academic career she is an award-winning journalist, published in Forbes, Fortune, BusinessWeek, The Washington Post, The Guardian and the New Statesman. She is also a Research Affiliate of the Centre for Public Policy.

First published: 4 November 2025

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