Exploring disease transitions for patients with multiple long-term conditions using an agent-based modelling approach
Supervisors:
Prof Colin McCowan, School of Medicine, University of St Andrews
Dr Cicely Macnamara, School of Medicine, University of St Andrews
Dr Sarah Mills, School of Medicine, University of St Andrews
Summary:
Multimorbidity—living with multiple long-term conditions—is now one of the greatest challenges facing modern healthcare. Patients often experience fragmented care, complex treatment pathways, and poorer outcomes, placing increasing pressure on health services.
This project will use cutting-edge agent-based modelling to simulate how individuals develop and live with multiple long-term conditions across the life course. By representing virtual patients with realistic characteristics and care pathways, the model will capture the complex interactions between diseases, behaviours, and healthcare systems.
The aim is to generate clinically meaningful insights into how multimorbidity develops, how patients interact with services, and where interventions can make the greatest difference. The model will be used to test strategies such as integrated care, early intervention, and targeted prevention, with a focus on improving outcomes and reducing health inequalities.
This research offers a unique opportunity to bridge clinical insight and advanced analytics, contributing to the design of more effective, patient-centred services.