Sir Ivan Rogers warns of biggest Brexit crisis yet

Sir Ivan Rogers, the United Kingdom’s former ambassador to the European Union will warn that the biggest Brexit crisis yet is still a year away.

In a keynote speech to be delivered to Policy Scotland at the University of Glasgow today, Sir Ivan will say that neither the General Election of 12 December nor the ‘leave’ deadline of January 31, 2020 are as significant as the end of the transition period due in late 2020 when details of the UK and EU’s future trading relationship are supposed to be settled.

In his sold-out lecture, The Ghost of Christmas yet to come: Looking ahead to the coming year(s) of the Brexit process, Sir Ivan will outline the potential scenarios for Brexit.

Sir Ivan said: “My argument is that incentives on both sides of the Channel mean that a failure or breakdown of the UK-EU trade talks over next year is much likelier than people realise. That’s why I think we could very well be facing the most difficult crisis yet at this time next year.

“I’m delighted to be back at the University of Glasgow as part of the Policy Scotland public lecture series.”

Des McNulty, Deputy Director of Policy Scotland and University of Glasgow Assistant Vice-Principal, Economic Development and Civic Engagement, said: “The Policy Scotland public lecture series explores issues of politics, economics and governance which are shaping the future of Scotland. We bring experts to Glasgow to share their knowledge on the big issues of the day, and we’re delighted to welcome Sir Ivan to share his insights on Brexit.”

The lecture takes place at the University of Glasgow on Monday 25 November 2019, at 6pm. The event has sold out, but the text of the speech will be published on the Policy Scotland website

About Sir Ivan Rogers

Sir Ivan served in a variety of positions in the civil service including senior roles under prime ministers from Tony Blair onwards.

He was the Permanent Representative of the United Kingdom to the European Union from November 2013 until his resignation on 3 January 2017. In this position, he was the UK’s most senior negotiator with other Member States and the European institutions.

Since leaving the civil service he has written and spoken widely on Britain, the EU and Brexit. His essay Nine Lessons in Brexit was published earlier this year.

About Policy Scotland

Policy Scotland fosters local, national and international public policy debates, as part of its aim to stimulate new thinking and good practice in public policy in Scotland and further afield.

The Policy Scotland public lecture series seeks to explore different aspects of the question ‘What kind of country do we want Scotland to be?’ The series brings eminent people in their fields to the University of Glasgow to share their knowledge and expertise on defining issues of the day.

Previous speakers have included: 

  • Philip Rycroft, former Permanent Secretary at the Department for Exiting the EU
  • David Martin, former Vice-President of the European Parliament and Co-Convenor of Scotland’s Citizens’ Assembly
  • Ruth Davidson, former Leader of the Scottish Conservative Party
  • Lord Kerr, diplomat and member of the House of Lords
  • Sir Martin Donnelly, former Permanent Secretary of the Department for International Trade

First published: 25 November 2019