Macro Economic Modelling
The Gambling Act Review aims to minimise harms from gambling whilst allowing the industry to contribute to the economy. The tension between these two objectives has led to fierce debates, with the industry arguing that many harm minimisation actions will have a negative impact on the economy and drive consumers to the black market.
Evidence from other areas tells us that when spending is constrained on one product (i.e., like gambling, through increased taxes or regulation) people often choose to spend their saved money elsewhere. Termed the substitution-effect, this money is not completely lost to the economy. However, it is not clear how gambling fits into people's broader patterns of expenditure or how they might change what they spend their money on should they be no longer able to gamble.
Our project fills this gap. We have conducted new empirical research to model the likely impact on changing gambling regulations on expenditure patterns among people who regularly gamble. This includes analysis of new survey data and conducting a Discrete Choice Experiment (DCE) to understand the likely changing expenditure preferences and choices of people who gamble regularly. Partnering with NIESR, we have used resulting findings to model the overall impact of gambling regulatory changes upon the macro economy based on empirical data on how people say these policies will effect them.
A Policy Briefing setting out the findings of this work will be available by the end of 2025.
