Decision analytic modelling methods for economic evaluation

Decision analytic modelling methods for economic evaluation

We organise foundation and advanced courses in the principles and practice of decision modelling for economic evaluation in health. Find out more:

Foundation course

Overview

This is a two-day course providing an introduction to the principles and practice of decision modelling for economic evaluation in health.  This course is a collaboration between the University of Glasgow and the Centre for Health Economics at the University of York.

The course is aimed at health economists and those health professionals with experience of health economics who wish to develop skills and knowledge in decision analysis for purposes of cost effectiveness analysis.  It is designed for participants who are familiar with the basic principles of economic evaluation who wish to build, interpret and appraise decision models.

It is envisaged that participants will currently be undertaking economic evaluation within the pharmaceutical and medical device industries, consultancy, academia or the health service.

Teaching methods

A mixture of presentations from members of the Faculty, together with computer-based exercises using MS Excel.  All exercises will be supported by Faculty and a group of tutors.

Objectives

By the end of the course, participants will be able to:

  • consider the role of decision modelling in economic evaluation to guide decision making
  • use the basic building blocks of decision analysis such as joint and conditional probabilities and expected values
  • implement the principles of conceptual modelling as a way of planning a model
  • understand the strengths and weaknesses of the decision tree model and build such a model in Excel
  • understand the strengths and weaknesses of the Markov model and build such a model in Excel
  • think critically about the structure of decision models in particular situations and apply these appropriately
  • implement key generic analytic steps in decision analysis such as evidence identification and basic synthesis, sensitivity analysis and reporting results

Prerequisites

Participants would be expected to have attended a general course in economic evaluation such as York expert workshops offered by the University of York. The course will be 'hands-on' and participants will be expected to bring a laptop computer (and mouse) with Microsoft Excel for use throughout the course. A familiarity with Microsoft Excel is essential.

Outline programme

Please note that the exact programme is subject to change although the material covered will remain largely the same

Day one

  • Introduction, policy context and purpose of decision analysis: 10:00am
  • Module 1: Decision trees for therapeutics and diagnostics
  • key building blocks of modelling e.g. joint and conditional probabilities and expected values
  • basic decision trees structures
  • building a decision tree model in Excel
  • modelling diagnostic decision problems
  • calculating the value of diagnostic information
  • Further analytics: evidence synthesis, presentation, sensitivity analysis and heterogeneity

Day two

  • Module 2: Markov modelling
  • principles of Markov cohort models
  • key issues and simplifications
  • parameterisation of Markov models
  • programming a Markov model in Excel
  • Module 3: Model planning
  • defining a decision problem and assessing modelling implications
  • defining boundaries for a model
  • selecting between alternative model structures and types
  • assessing appropriate level of model complexity

The following article describes an introduction to Markov modelling:
Briggs A, Sculpher M.  Introducing Markov models for economic evaluation. PharmacoEconomics 1998; 13(4): 397-409.

An Excel version of the model may be downloaded if you wish.


Advanced course

A three-day course focusing on advanced modelling methods for economic evaluation.  This course is a collaboration between the University of Glasgow and the Centre for Health Economics at the University of York.

Overview

The course is aimed at health economists and those health professionals with experience of health economics who wish to learn about recent methodological developments in cost-effectiveness analysis.

It is designed for participants who are familiar with basic decision modelling who wish to learn how to use more advanced modelling methods. It is particularly suitable for those who have attended our Introduction to Modelling Methods for Health Economic Evaluation. 

It is envisaged that participants will currently be undertaking modelling for health economic evaluation within the pharmaceutical and medical device industries, consultancy, academia or the health service.

Objectives

By the end of the course, participants will be able to:

  • model and populate a Markov model with time-dependent probabilities based on the results of parametric survival modelling
  • make a model probabilistic to reflect parameter uncertainty and to run Monte Carlo simulation
  • present the results of a probabilistic model using net monetary benefits and cost-effectiveness acceptability curves
  • assess the expected value of perfect information
  • understand how to incorporate various forms of meta-analysis into probabilistic decision models

Prerequisites

This is an advanced course focusing specifically on decision modelling. Participants would be expected to have attended a general advanced course in economic evaluation such as York expert workshops offered by the University of York. The course will be 'hands-on' and participants will be expected to bring a laptop computer (and mouse) with Microsoft Excel for use throughout the course. Each module will involve computer work on exercises which will be built up over the three days. A familiarity with Microsoft Excel is essential.

Outline programme

Day one

  • Introduction: 10:00am
  • Module 1: Developments in Markov modelling
  • overview of Markov models
  • advanced concepts in Markov models - time dependency and dealing with the Markov assumption
  • building time dependency into Markov models using parametric survival modelling
  • partitioned survival analysis for cost effectiveness modelling

Day two

  • Module 2: Probabilistic modelling
  • 2nd order Monte Carlo
  • dealing with distributions
  • programming Excel
  • using regression analysis to populate models
  • Module 3: Presenting the results of probabilistic modelling
  • presenting results from probabilistic models (net benefits, cost-effectiveness acceptability curves, sub-groups)

Day three

  • Module 4: Value of information analysis
  • value of information methods
  • development of EVPI
  • introduction to EVSI
  • Module 5: Evidence synthesis in probabilistic models
  • metrics used in meta-analysis
  • fixed and random effects models
  • indirect and mixed treatment comparisons

A copy of the handbook 'Decision Modelling for Health Economic Evaluation' is included with the course materials.

The following article describes an introduction to Markov modelling:
Briggs A, Sculpher M.  Introducing Markov models for economic evaluation. PharmacoEconomics 1998; 13(4): 397-409.

An Excel version of the model may be downloaded if you wish.


Course dates

Glasgow, Scotland

Foundations course, Monday 23rd - Tuesday 24th September 2019
Advanced course, Wednesday 25th - Friday 27th  September  2019

Contact HEHTA Administrators

York, England

https://www.york.ac.uk/che/courses/decision-analytic-modelling/

 Contact Linda Baillie


Faculty

In addition to the presenters below, tutors from HEHTA will be involved in all exercises.

Kathleen Boyd

Kathleen Boyd, PhD, Health Economics and Health Technology Assessment, Institute of Health & Wellbeing, University of Glasgow.   Kathleen works on numerous projects undertaking economic evaluations within a variety of health care areas such as oncology, child health and smoking cessation interventions.  Her research interests are in the areas of early-stage decision analytic modelling, and in designing and undertaking economic evaluations alongside clinical trials.

Andrew Briggs

Andrew Briggs, DPhil, Health Economics & Health Technology Assessment, Institute of Health & Wellbeing, University of Glasgow was appointed to the Lindsay Chair in Health Economics in June 2005.  Andrew has an interest in all aspects of economic evaluation applied to health care, in particular the use of statistical methods for assessing cost and cost effectiveness, and the use of risk/prognostic modelling for making treatment decisions and guiding policy.

Karl Claxton

Karl Claxton, DPhil, Professor of Economics in the Team for Economic Evaluation and Health Technology Assessment in the Centre for Health Economics, and in the Department of Economics, University of York. His research interests include evaluation on health care technologies, decision analysis, Bayesian decision theory and value of information analysis.

Stephen Palmer

Stephen Palmer, MSc, is a Professor and Deputy Director of the Team for Economic Evaluation and Health Technology Assessment at the Centre for Health Economics, University of York. He has worked in economic evaluation for over 15 years in areas including pharmaceuticals, cardiology, cancer, mental health, diagnostic and screening programmes and policy. He has extensive experience of health economic evaluation, regulatory and reimbursement processes. His principal areas of expertise relate to the methodology and application of decision-analytic modelling and Bayesian approaches to Health Technology Assessment.

Mark Sculpher

Mark Sculpher, PhD, Professor and Director of the Team for Economic Evaluation and Health Technology Assessment, Centre for Health Economics, University of York.  Mark has worked in the field of economic evaluation and health technology assessment for over 20 years.  He has researched in a range of clinical areas and has also contributed to methods in the field, in particular relating to decision analytic modelling and techniques to handle uncertainty, heterogeneity and generalisability. 

Olivia  Wu

Olivia is the Director of the HEHTA Research Unit, where she also leads the Evidence Synthesis Research Programme. Olivia's research interest in health technology assessment methodologies focuses on the areas of evidence synthesis (including systematic review and meta-analysis of aggregate and individual patient data; direct, indirect and networked evidence), risk prediction modelling and economic evaluation. She has undertaken research in a variety of clinical areas including cardiovascular disease, haematology, obstetrics and gynaecology, and rheumatology.


Registration and fees

Foundations course 

  • public and academic sector £760
  • commercial sector   £1,200

Advanced course 

  • public and academic sector £1150
  • commercial sector £1800

Both courses 

  • public and academic sector £1910
  • commercial sector £3000

 

 We can offer a discount for multiple applicants from the same company or institution who are attending the same course as follows:

2 delegates - 5% discount
3 delegates - 10% discount
4 delegates - 15% discount
5 delegates - 20% discount

Registration

Register for the Foundation course

Register for the Advanced course

Register for both foundation and Advanced courses. 

If you have any queries, please contact our administrators.

 

Cancellations and changes

A full refund of course fees (less 10% administrative charge) will be made for cancellations received in writing at least one month prior to the workshop.

Substitutes can be made but please email new delegate's details to our administrators

**Cancellations made less than one month prior to the workshops are non-refundable.**


Frequently Asked Questions

Decision Analytic Modelling for Economic Evaluation

Frequently Asked Questions

 

FAQ 1: The course description states that a familiarity with Excel is essential, exactly what constitutes familiarity? 

The course involves a number of exercises structured within the Microsoft Excel(TM) spreadsheet package.  A number of specialist functions, such as vlookup(.) and distribution functions will be covered as part of the course and so familiarity with these specific functions is not essential.  However, it is essential that participants are familiar with the basic concepts of manipulating spreadsheets: copy and pasting, using formulae and functions to link cells together, dragging cells to create a series etc.  All of the exercises we will cover in the course are included in the book “Decision Modelling for Health Economic Evaluation” and are available online

If you are concerned about your familiarity with Excel, then have a look at one of the early examples ahead of time.  You will enjoy the course more, and get more out of the exercises, if you have a reasonable level of Excel proficiency such that you can concentrate on the concepts underlying the exercise rather than learning Excel as you go along.

FAQ 2:Are there any reading recommendations such as books and articles to make sure that my knowledge is sufficient for the course?

We will hand out the course book “Decision Modelling for Health Economic Evaluation” by Andrew Briggs, Karl Claxton and Mark Sculpher (see link under FAQ 1).  All of the exercises we will cover in the course are included in this book, but there is no need to attempt the exercises ahead of time.   The following article describes an introduction to Markov modelling:

Briggs A, Sculpher M.  Introducing Markov models for economic evaluation. PharmacoEconomics 1998; 13(4): 397-409.

An Excel version of the model can be downloaded from our website at http://www.gla.ac.uk/researchinstitutes/healthwellbeing/research/hehta/continuingprofessionaldevelopment/advancedmodellingmethods/     Familiarising yourself with this paper and the commands necessary to build the model in Excel will bring you to the approximate level covered in the Foundations course and prepare you for the Advanced course.

FAQ 3: Although I do not have direct modeling experience I am familiar with many of the basic concepts of economic modelling and have seen some of the models that have been developed by outside agencies for our company.  I would be keen to participate in a course that challenges me, and I think that the course content of this course looks particularly interesting.  Do you think that I would benefit from the course?

Enthusiasm is probably the most important requirement.  The key decision for you is whether to attend the Foundations course first or to go straight to the Advanced course.  To help you decide, we suggest you review the article and model download listed under FAQ 2 above.  If you find this challenging, consider starting with the Foundations course.

FAQ 4: Is the course the same as that held in York?

Yes, the faculty and the material is the same as the York course, we run it twice, once at each of our institutions.   The core faculty is the same, but the tutors will come from our respective research teams.

FAQ 5: Is the course ECTS-credit eligible?

No, our courses are not credit eligible.

FAQ 6: Do you offer any discounts on the course fee?

A discounted rate is available for applicants from the academic and public sector, and we can offer a further discount for multiple applicants. If a single company or institution books four places, we will offer a further place free of charge.

FAQ 7: Is the course fee including VAT?

No, the course fee is VAT-exempt.

FAQ 8: How can I pay for the course?

We are using Eventbrite for course fee payment. The link to our Eventbrite page is under the tab 'Registration and Fees'. A variety of cards are accepted for payment.

Alternatively, if you require one, we can issue an invoice which can be paid by bank transfer, Visa card, MasterCard or by cheque. If you need an invoice, please contact ihw-hehta@glasgow.ac.uk.

FAQ 9: When is my payment of the course fee due?

The course fee is payable in advance, and payment is due 30 days from the date of the invoice.

FAQ 10: What is included in the course fee?

The course fee includes full participation of the course, the course material including the course book “Decision Modelling for Health Economic Evaluation”, lunch and coffee breaks on each course day, as well as a course dinner on the first evening.  There is also a drinks reception on the Thursday evening for those attending the Advanced course.

FAQ 11: Is there accommodation available on the campus for students following this course?

Unfortunately there is no accommodation available on the campus.  However, when you book on the course we will send you a list of local establishments, with a variety of price ranges, which have been recommended by previous course participants.

FAQ 12: How often do you run the course?

We run this course once a year in early autumn.  The course also runs once a year in March at the University of York:  http://www.york.ac.uk/che/courses/short/decision-analytic-modelling/

FAQ 13: Where can I find more information about your CPD courses?

For details about our courses please visit our website at http://www.gla.ac.uk/hehta under ‘Continuing Professional Development’.


Downloads

Supporting material for Decision Modelling for Health Economic Evaluation

To support the exercises, we have developed a set of exercise templates and solutions. Files are labelled to correspond to the chapter numbering.

Chapter 2

Exercise 2.5: Template
Exercise 2.5: Solution

Chapter 3

Exercise 3.5: Template
Exercise 3.5: Solution

Chapter 4

Exercise 4.7: Template
Exercise 4.7: Solution

Exercise 4.8: Template
Exercise 4.8: Solution

Chapter 5

Exercise 5.7: Template
Exercise 5.7: Solution

Exercise 5.8: Template
Exercise 5.8: Solution

Chapter 6

Exercise 6.6a: Template
Exercise 6.6a: Solution

Exercise 6.6b: Template
Exercise 6.6b: Solution