Transferable species distribution modelling: Comparative performance evaluation and interpretation of novel Generalized Functional Response models

Shaykhah Aldossari (University of Glasgow)

Friday 10th March, 2023 15:00-16:00 Boyd Orr 709A

Abstract

Predictive species distribution models (SDMs) are becoming increasingly important in ecology, in the light of rapid environmental change. The predictions of most current SDMs are specific to the habitat composition of the environments in which such models were fitted. However, species respond differently to a given habitat depending on the availability of all habitats in their environment, a phenomenon known as a functional response in resource selection. The Generalised Functional Response (GFR) framework captures this dependence by formulating the SDM coefficients as functions of habitat availability in the broader environment. The original GFR implementation used global polynomial functions of habitat availability to describe functional responses. In the present thesis, I develop several refinements of this approach and compare their explanatory and predictive performance using two simulated and three real datasets.

I use local radial basis functions (RBF), a more flexible approach than global polynomials, to represent the habitat selection coefficients and regularization to balance bias and variance and prevent over-fitting. Second, I use the RBF-GFR and GFR models in combination with the classification and regression tree (CART), which has more flexibility and better predictive powers for non-linear modelling. As further extensions, I use random forests (RF) and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) ensemble approaches that consistently lead to a reduction of the generalization error.

 

 

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