Decision Analytic Modelling for Economic Evaluation
Overview
This is a two-day course providing an introduction to the principles and practice of decision modelling for economic evaluation in health. This course is a collaboration between the University of Glasgow and the Centre for Health Economics at the University of York.
The course is aimed at health economists and those health professionals with experience of health economics who wish to develop skills and knowledge in decision analysis for purposes of cost effectiveness analysis. It is designed for participants who are familiar with the basic principles of economic evaluation who wish to build, interpret and appraise decision models. It is envisaged that participants will currently be undertaking economic evaluation within the pharmaceutical and medical device industries, consultancy, academia or the health service.
Teaching methods
A mixture of presentations from members of the Faculty, together with computer-based exercises using MS Excel on PCs provided. All exercises will be supported by Faculty and a group of tutors.
Objectives
By the end of the course, participants will be able to:
- consider the role of decision modelling in economic evaluation to guide decision making
- use the basic building blocks of decision analysis such as joint and conditional probabilities and expected values
- implement the principles of conceptual modelling as a way of planning a model
- understand the strengths and weaknesses of the decision tree model and build such a model in Excel
- understand the strengths and weaknesses of the Markov model and build such a model in Excel
- think critically about the structure of decision models in particular situations and apply these appropriately
- implement key generic analytic steps in decision analysis such as evidence identification and basic synthesis, sensitivity analysis and reporting results
Prerequisites
Participants would be expected to have attended a general course in economic evaluation such as York expert workshops offered by the University of York. The course will be 'hands-on' and participants will be expected to bring a laptop computer (and mouse) with Microsoft Excel for use throughout the course. A familiarity with Microsoft Excel is essential.
Outline programme
Please note that the exact programme is subject to change although the material covered will remain largely the same
Day one
- Introduction, policy context and purpose of decision analysis: 10:00am
- Module 1: Decision trees for therapeutics and diagnostics
- key building blocks of modelling e.g. joint and conditional probabilities and expected values
- basic decision trees structures
- building a decision tree model in Excel
- modelling diagnostic decision problems
- calculating the value of diagnostic information
- Further analytics: evidence synthesis, presentation, sensitivity analysis and heterogeneity
Day two
- Module 2: Markov modelling
- principles of Markov cohort models
- key issues and simplifications
- parameterisation of Markov models
- programming a Markov model in Excel
- Module 3: Model planning
- defining a decision problem and assessing modelling implications
- defining boundaries for a model
- selecting between alternative model structures and types
- assessing appropriate level of model complexity
Overview
A three-day course focusing on advanced modelling methods for economic evaluation. This course is a collaboration between the University of Glasgow and the Centre for Health Economics at the University of York.
The course is aimed at health economists and those health professionals with experience of health economics who wish to learn about recent methodological developments in cost-effectiveness analysis. It is designed for participants who are familiar with basic decision modelling who wish to learn how to use more advanced modelling methods. It is particulary suitable for those who have attended our Introduction to Modelling Methods for Health Economic Evaluation. It is envisaged that participants will currently be undertaking modelling for health economic evaluation within the pharmaceutical and medical device industries, consultancy, academia or the health service.
Objectives
By the end of the course, participants will be able to:
- model and populate a Markov model with time-dependent probabilities based on the results of parametric survival modelling
- make a model probabilistic to reflect parameter uncertainty and to run Monte Carlo simulation
- present the results of a probabilistic model using net monetary benefits and cost-effectiveness acceptability curves
- assess the expected value of perfect information
- understand how to incorporate various forms of meta-analysis into probabilistic decision models
Prerequisites
This is an advanced course focusing specifically on decision modelling. Participants would be expected to have attended a general advanced course in economic evaluation such as York expert workshops offered by the University of York. The course will be 'hands-on' and participants will be expected to bring a laptop computer (and mouse) with Microsoft Excel for use throughout the course. Each module will involve computer work on exercises which will be built up over the three days. A familiarity with Microsoft Excel is essential.
Outline programme
Day one
- Introduction: 10:00am
- Module 1: Developments in Markov modelling
- overview of Markov models
- advanced concepts in Markov models - time dependency and dealing with the Markov assumption
- building time dependency into Markov models using parametric survival modelling
- partitioned survival analysis for cost effectiveness modelling
Day two
- Module 2: Probabilistic modelling
- 2nd order Monte Carlo
- dealing with distributions
- programming Excel
- using regression analysis to populate models
- Module 3: Presenting the results of probabilistic modelling
- presenting results from probabilistic models (net benefits, cost-effectiveness acceptability curves, sub-groups)
Day three
- Module 4: Value of information analysis
- value of information methods
- development of EVPI
- introduction to EVSI
- Module 5: Evidence synthesis in probabilistic models
- metrics used in meta-analysis
- fixed and random effects models
- indirect and mixed treatment comparisons
York, England
- Foundations course, Monday 18th March - Tuesday 19th March 2013
- Advanced course, Wednesday 20 March - Friday 22 March 2013
Contact Linda Baillie at che-admod@york.ac.uk
Glasgow, Scotland
- Foundations course, Monday 7th October - Tuesday 8th October 2013
- Advanced course, Wednesday 9th October - Friday 11th October 2013
Contact Caroline Cecil at ihw-hehta@glasgow.ac.uk
In addition to the presenters below, tutors from HEHTA will be involved in all exercises.
Andrew Briggs
Andrew Briggs, DPhil, Health Economics & Health Technology Assessment, Institute of Health & Wellbeing, University of Glasgow was appointed to the Lindsay Chair in Health Economics in June 2005. Andrew has an interest in all aspects of economic evaluation applied to health care, in particular the use of statistical methods for assessing cost and cost effectiveness, and the use of risk/prognostic modelling for making treatment decisions and guiding policy.
Karl Claxton
Karl Claxton, DPhil, Professor of Economics in the Team for Economic Evaluation and Health Technology Assessment in the Centre for Health Economics, and in the Department of Economics, University of York. His research interests include evaluation on health care technologies, decision analysis, Bayesian decision theory and value of information analysis.
Liz Fenwick
Elisabeth Fenwick, PhD, Senior Lecturer in Health Economics, Health Economics & Health Technology Assessment, Institute of Health & Wellbeing, University of Glasgow. Elisabeth’s research interests centre around the application of decision analytic modelling and simulation methods to Health Technology Assessment, economic evaluation of health care technologies, probabilistic decision analytic modelling, Bayesian decision theory and value of information analysis. Elisabeth leads the Decision Analytic Modelling and Simulation for Evaluation in heaLth (DAMSEL) programme within HEHTA. She has contributed widely to the literature, both methodological and applied, on economic evaluation. In addition, she contributes to both undergraduate and postgraduate teaching in the Institute of Health & Wellbeing and to a number of CPD short courses internationally.
Elisabeth is an Associate Editor for Medical Decision Making and is a member of the board for the Society for Medical Decision Making.
Stephen Palmer
Stephen Palmer, MSc, is a Professor and Deputy Director of the Team for Economic Evaluation and Health Technology Assessment at the Centre for Health Economics, University of York. He has worked in economic evaluation for over 15 years in areas including pharmaceuticals, cardiology, cancer, mental health, diagnostic and screening programmes and policy. He has extensive experience of health economic evaluation, regulatory and reimbursement processes. His principal areas of expertise relate to the methodology and application of decision-analytic modelling and Bayesian approaches to Health Technology Assessment. He has worked closely with policy makers and currently leads the programme of work at CHE for the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) and he is also a member of the NICE Decision Support Unit. He has advised policy makers internationally including in the US and Canada. He is currently a member of the NICE Technology Appraisal Committee and the NIHR Research for Patient Benefit Programme.
Mark Sculpher
Mark Sculpher, PhD, Professor and Director of the Team for Economic Evaluation and Health Technology Assessment, Centre for Health Economics, University of York. Mark has worked in the field of economic evaluation and health technology assessment for over 20 years. He has researched in a range of clinical areas and has also contributed to methods in the field, in particular relating to decision analytic modelling and techniques to handle uncertainty, heterogeneity and generalisability. He is a past member of the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) Technology Appraisal Committee and currently sits on NICE’s Diagnostics Advisory Committee. He chaired NICE's 2004 Task Group on methods guidance for economic evaluation and advised the Methods Working Party for the 2008 update of this guidance. He was President of the International Society of Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR) (2011-12).
To register for either course, contact Caroline Cecil @ ihw-hehta@glasgow.ac.uk
Fees
Fees are fully inclusive of tuition, lunch, course dinner and course materials, but do not include accommodation. VAT is not payable. Transferring between courses is not possible.
| public/academic sector | commercial sector | |
|---|---|---|
|
Foundations course fee |
£665 | £1,035 |
| public/academic sector | commercial sector | |
|---|---|---|
|
Advanced course fee |
£995 | £1550 |
Cancellations and alterations
A full refund of course fees (less 10% administrative charge) will be made for cancellations received in writing at least one month prior to the workshop. Substitutes can be made but please email new delegates details when known to ihw-hehta@glasgow.ac.uk. Cancellations made less than one month prior to the workshops are non-refundable/non-changeable.