UNIVERSITY of GLASGOW

Centre for Development Studies
Department of Economics, part of Faculty of Law, Business and Social Sciences
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Quantitative Methods for Planning: Forecasting

Year: 2008-2009
Course credits: 20
Course code: 9MLS
Semester: 1
Course co-ordinator: Dr Alexandros Kontonikas
Course lecturers: Dr Alexandros Kontonikas and Professor Farhad Noorbakhsh
Prerequisites: None

Course description

This course familiarises students with the quantitative methods used widely in planning for forecasting. The course combines the theoretical foundations of the methods discussed with practical problems and emphasises model building for forecasting. The course consists of five parts. The first part is a review of the basic statistical concepts and matrix algebra. The second part introduces regression analysis: the basic idea behind the classical linear regression model (CLRM), the underlying assumptions, and the problem of estimation. Building on the two-variable model, it analyses a few extensions, the multiple regression model, and the matrix approach to the linear regression model. The third part of the course reviews hypothesis testing and interval estimation, both on the two-variable and multivariate regression models.  The fourth part of the course briefly analyses the consequences on the estimators from relaxing the assumptions of the CLRM. The fifth and final part deals with economic model building and input-output models.

Learning and teaching methods

Two 2-hour review lectures, ten 2-hour lectures, and three 2-hour computer labs.

Course texts

Recommended readings include:

  • Gujarati, D.N. (2003). Basic Econometrics, 4th edition, London: McGraw-Hill.
  • Greene, W.H. (2002). Econometric Analysis, 5th edition, Prentice-Hall.
  • Stock J. and Watson M. (2003). Introduction to Econometrics, Boston, Mass.; London: Addison Wesley.
  • Bulmer-Thomas, V. (1982). Input-Output Analysis in Developing Countries: Sources, Methods and Applications, Chichester, New York: Wiley.
  • United Nations (Department of Economic and Social Affairs Statistics), (1999). Input Output Table Compilation and Analysis.

Assessment

  • Coursework (25%) and examination (75%).
  • Coursework: 1 quantitative / computer assignment.
  • Examination: two-hour written examination taken at the April/May examination diet.

Quantitative Methods for Planning - Forecasting: course handbook 2008-09